ImperialCollegeLondon / covid19model

Code for modelling estimated deaths and cases for COVID19.
MIT License
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Mark the model for Sweden as invalid or similar #71

Open DrChr opened 4 years ago

DrChr commented 4 years ago

Due to the model for Sweden using incorrect data, I think you should somehow mark the corresponding web page [1] as invalid or something. Perhaps you could add a banner or note at the top of the web page. Or maybe just remove it.

As for why the data I say the data it's using is invalid, have a look at the the screenshots below for comparison. See #58 for additional details.

I also wonder if you have checked the data for other countries?

N:o deceased for different days as taken from Sweden's "Folkhälsomyndighet" on the 16th of April: image

Compare this with what's currently (on the 16th) being shown on the model for Sweden: image

[1] https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/Sweden

DrChr commented 4 years ago

Below is a comparison of data from Folkhälsomyndigheten (FOHM) and data I just downloaded from ECDC's web site:

Date FOHM ECDC Error
3/11/2020 1 0 1
3/12/2020 0 1 -1
3/13/2020 1 0 1
3/14/2020 1 0 1
3/15/2020 2 0 2
3/16/2020 2 2 0
3/17/2020 1 4 -3
3/18/2020 6 1 5
3/19/2020 7 2 5
3/20/2020 10 0 10
3/21/2020 7 6 1
3/22/2020 12 4 8
3/23/2020 11 1 10
3/24/2020 20 4 16
3/25/2020 25 11 14
3/26/2020 30 6 24
3/27/2020 32 24 8
3/28/2020 35 26 9
3/29/2020 38 10 28
3/30/2020 42 8 34
3/31/2020 43 36 7
4/1/2020 50 34 16
4/2/2020 68 59 9
4/3/2020 71 43 28
4/4/2020 61 51 10
4/5/2020 79 40 39
4/6/2020 85 28 57
4/7/2020 75 76 -1
4/8/2020 97 114 -17
4/9/2020 63 96 -33
4/10/2020 62 106 -44
4/11/2020 61 77 -16
4/12/2020 62 17 45
4/13/2020 55 12 43
4/14/2020 49 20 29
4/15/2020 41 114 -73
4/16/2020 10 170 -152
Date missing: 18    
offroff commented 4 years ago

The data from the swedish authorities are quite problematic, I wouldn't use it. Also, the swedish data has fooled the authority itself and the swedish people. The ECDC data is probably a lot more useful.