IndEcol / RECC-ODYM

The RECC model
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Can ODYM account for attribute changes in age-cohorts over time? #2

Closed nheeren closed 5 years ago

nheeren commented 6 years ago

@TomerFishman realised this yesterday, documenting it here for further discussion.

Lifetime is an attribute of a given age-cohort. If we want to assume the RE strategy of lifetime extension it would be necessary to redefine the lifetime within a model run.

An example: The building cohort "residential, single-family, 1970" has the expected median lifetime of 50 years and a standard deviation of +/-10. That means, in 2015 already a fair share of this cohort will have left the stock. Now, we assume a RE strategy that increases lifetime by +20%, i.e. median life increases to 60 years. How do we account for this?

From how I understand the code right now, this might be tricky to account for in the current model.

stefanpauliuk commented 6 years ago

In a standard lifetime model (convolution), this would not work. But we can modify that, e.g., by saying ‘actual outflow’ is ‘delay factor’*baseline outflow. Cf. model equation 7 in ODYM-RECC docu.

As long as we keep the mass balance we can delay scrapping at any time, leading to a lifetime extension. Just need to be careful to not label these cohorts as ’15 years lifetime’ or so, when in fact, their average lifetime got extended. May need to recalculate the actual lifetime after the fact, or adjust (extend the tail) of the lifetime pdf on the fly, according to what the RE strategy scenario sais.

Another strategy is reuse, e.g., giving cars a second (maybe shorter) life.

nheeren commented 6 years ago

Sounds good. That means there is already a delay factor implemented in the code? So ist this issue closed?

TomerFishman commented 6 years ago

I think I get what Stefan means in theory, but it would be best if you can point us to the exact lines of code to see how it's implemented.

I have been working on python code snippets of algorithms to calculate the average age and average lifespan of the entire stock at any given year. If I see the code with the delay factor, I can try to harmonize them. If it works, We might even be able to use the average stock lifetime as an exogenous variable that we can tweak to dynamically change the delay factors of each cohort on the fly.

Tomer

On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:47 nheeren notifications@github.com wrote:

Sounds good. That means there is already a delay factor implemented in the code? So ist this issue closed?

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stefanpauliuk commented 6 years ago

https://github.com/YaleCIE/RECC-ODYM/blob/master/RECC_Main_Development_1.py Lines 407-416.

But this is only the lifetime extension of future age-cohorts. The scrapping delay for existing ones is not implemented yet as I wanted to wait for us to decide on whether and how we want to do it.