cliffckerr
commented
4 years ago This is already included in Covasim, see the symp_prob parameter. In Fig. 2 of this paper, we see 31% asymptomatic and 14% presymptomatic transmission:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154765v3.full.pdf
Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
Yes, without this feature the projection should not be used. To be effective as a tool for planning school reopening, this simulation should account for asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread that has been shown in newer studies to be non-negligible. Recent JAMA study shows ⅓ of subjects tested positive shows no symptom, ⅕ eventually show symptoms when in isolation. Conclusion from paper:
“Many individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection remained asymptomatic for a prolonged period, and viral load was similar to that in symptomatic patients; therefore, isolation of infected persons should be performed regardless of symptoms.”
Describe the solution you'd like
Just like it allows for distancing effectiveness as a parameter to drive the simulation, it should allow an input for non-symptomatic contagious carrier as ratio of population, and percentage of test coverage for this group, and show the effect in the projection.
Describe alternatives you've considered
None.
Additional context