JestonBlu / Unemployment

Masters Project: Forecasting Unemployment
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Questions about email from professor #13

Closed sheltonmath closed 8 years ago

sheltonmath commented 8 years ago

"Projects: Written reports of Round II are posted, there is a 5-page limit. For Round III, the page limit is ten."

(That is a scary idea - I would like all of us to earn top marks. I have been reviewing some literature - the literature part is fun for me. So, I will have no problem documenting things and consolidating the work that everyone has done. Of course, I think we are all interested in being part of all the parts of the process.)

Some guidelines for writing the final reports can be found in the course syllabus.

(I am going to go through that again and get some kind of outline going. If there is anything that anyone things is important to add, I don't want the type of writing to get in the way. So, I think I will add some of the process to the Read.Me file on the write-ups page. What do you all think? Of course, I will keep pushing the LaTeX files to github from now on.)

SZRoberson commented 8 years ago

When I get the chance, I'll check the library site for some articles on forecasting or model building - maybe even past attempts to forecast this data.

On Jul 16, 2016 4:58 PM, "Alison" notifications@github.com wrote:

"Projects: Written reports of Round II are posted, there is a 5-page limit. For Round III, the page limit is ten."

  • The duties of each member should be stated and documented clearly. Otherwise, the member may be given an average score at best, since there is no other way assess the contribution. You may review other groups reports and get ideas to improve your your organizing and writing of your group's report.

(That is a scary idea - I would like all of us to earn top marks. I have been reviewing some literature - the literature part is fun for me. So, I will have no problem documenting things and consolidating the work that everyone has done. Of course, I think we are all interested in being part of all the parts of the process.)

Some guidelines for writing the final reports can be found in the course syllabus.

(I am going to go through that again and get some kind of outline going. If there is anything that anyone things is important to add, I don't want the type of writing to get in the way. So, I think I will add some of the process to the Read.Me file on the write-ups page. What do you all think? Of course, I will keep pushing the LaTeX files to github from now on.)

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sheltonmath commented 8 years ago

That would be awesome.

On Jul 16, 2016, at 3:01 PM, Sean Roberson notifications@github.com wrote:

When I get the chance, I'll check the library site for some articles on forecasting or model building - maybe even past attempts to forecast this data.

On Jul 16, 2016 4:58 PM, "Alison" notifications@github.com wrote:

"Projects: Written reports of Round II are posted, there is a 5-page limit. For Round III, the page limit is ten."

  • The duties of each member should be stated and documented clearly. Otherwise, the member may be given an average score at best, since there is no other way assess the contribution. You may review other groups reports and get ideas to improve your your organizing and writing of your group's report.

(That is a scary idea - I would like all of us to earn top marks. I have been reviewing some literature - the literature part is fun for me. So, I will have no problem documenting things and consolidating the work that everyone has done. Of course, I think we are all interested in being part of all the parts of the process.)

Some guidelines for writing the final reports can be found in the course syllabus.

(I am going to go through that again and get some kind of outline going. If there is anything that anyone things is important to add, I don't want the type of writing to get in the way. So, I think I will add some of the process to the Read.Me file on the write-ups page. What do you all think? Of course, I will keep pushing the LaTeX files to github from now on.)

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JestonBlu commented 8 years ago

I did some looking online and there are a few articles i suggest looking at... i dont have memberships to these sites though so maybe Sean can get access through the library or at least it may help bring up some other search ideas. I found these articles using Google Scholar searches.

Journal of the American Statistical Association Volume 93, Issue 442, 1998 Forecasting the U.S. Unemployment Rate Applications and Case Studies http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1998.10473696

Applied Economics Volume 33, Issue 10, 2001 The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840010007137

There is an R package for fractional arima, im going to check it out and see how it does.

bopangpsy commented 8 years ago

This sounds great. Actually, I think the textbook might point us to some important literature. I will check it out later.

On Sat, Jul 16, 2016 at 7:26 PM, Joseph Blubaugh notifications@github.com wrote:

I did some looking online and there are a few articles i suggest looking at... i dont have memberships to these sites though so maybe Sean can get access through the library or at least it may help bring up some other search ideas. I found these articles using Google Scholar searches.

Journal of the American Statistical Association Volume 93, Issue 442, 1998 Forecasting the U.S. Unemployment Rate Applications and Case Studies http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1998.10473696

Applied Economics Volume 33, Issue 10, 2001 The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840010007137

There is an R package for fractional arima, im going to check it out and see how it does.

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bopangpsy commented 8 years ago

Here are the papers Joseph mentioned. In case anyone has no access to them.

On Sat, Jul 16, 2016 at 10:28 PM, Bo Pang pangbo200909@gmail.com wrote:

This sounds great. Actually, I think the textbook might point us to some important literature. I will check it out later.

On Sat, Jul 16, 2016 at 7:26 PM, Joseph Blubaugh <notifications@github.com

wrote:

I did some looking online and there are a few articles i suggest looking at... i dont have memberships to these sites though so maybe Sean can get access through the library or at least it may help bring up some other search ideas. I found these articles using Google Scholar searches.

Journal of the American Statistical Association Volume 93, Issue 442, 1998 Forecasting the U.S. Unemployment Rate Applications and Case Studies http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1998.10473696

Applied Economics Volume 33, Issue 10, 2001 The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840010007137

There is an R package for fractional arima, im going to check it out and see how it does.

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sheltonmath commented 8 years ago

Does anyone here use Mendeley? I just added the articles mentioned to my account. If you are interested there is a link here: https://www.mendeley.com/groups/9054941/summer-2016-stat-626-group-4/papers/.

bopangpsy commented 8 years ago

I use Mendeley. This looks great! Thanks!

On Mon, Jul 18, 2016 at 3:49 PM, Alison notifications@github.com wrote:

Does anyone here use Mendeley? I just added the articles mentioned to my account. If you are interested there is a link here: https://www.mendeley.com/groups/9054941/summer-2016-stat-626-group-4/papers/ .

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SZRoberson commented 8 years ago

I placed the articles in the Writeups folder, including another one I found called "Lessons...Unemployment."

On Mon, Jul 18, 2016 at 6:08 PM, bopangpsy notifications@github.com wrote:

I use Mendeley. This looks great! Thanks!

On Mon, Jul 18, 2016 at 3:49 PM, Alison notifications@github.com wrote:

Does anyone here use Mendeley? I just added the articles mentioned to my account. If you are interested there is a link here:

https://www.mendeley.com/groups/9054941/summer-2016-stat-626-group-4/papers/ .

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.

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sheltonmath commented 8 years ago

I moved all of the literature into a common literature folder and updated Mendeley with the citations.