Write ups

[JestonBlu]

Use this section to discuss the formal write up that is submitted at the end of the class

[sheltonmath]

Do we want the presentation in beemer format?

[sheltonmath]

Here is a link to a possible background using the project guidelines: https://www.overleaf.com/5451263qytmjt

[JestonBlu]

I have never heard of Beemer till now, it looks nice though, im for it if everyone else is

[sheltonmath]

Beemer is just a LaTex class.

[SZRoberson]

I always wondered which class that was. We can give it a shot. On Jun 12, 2016 8:27 AM, "Alison" notifications@github.com wrote:

Beemer is just a LaTex class.

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[sheltonmath]

OK, I'll start adjusting using the link above https://www.overleaf.com/5451263qytmjt so that anyone can make edits.

[trlilley12]

Other than the presentation, we have to submit a written report right?

[JestonBlu]

Yes I believe that is the last thing that we submit.. I am a day behind on lectures, but I think recall on Tuesday lecture we were told there would be 5 presentations total

[trlilley12]

Oh okay. Does anyone have a preference for the program we use to make the report?

[bopangpsy]

I use word in my work. But if all of you guys prefer Latex, I can learn to use.

On Thu, Jun 16, 2016 at 10:25 AM, trlilley12 notifications@github.com wrote:

Oh okay. Does anyone have a preference for the program we use to make the report?

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[pakarshan]

I can collaborate and do Latex too. On Jun 16, 2016 10:29, "bopangpsy" notifications@github.com wrote:

I use word in my work. But if all of you guys prefer Latex, I can learn to use.

On Thu, Jun 16, 2016 at 10:25 AM, trlilley12 notifications@github.com wrote:

Oh okay. Does anyone have a preference for the program we use to make the report?

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.

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[trlilley12]

Okay, I can start adding things from the presentation in the introduction.

[JestonBlu]

I like Latex as well

[SZRoberson]

I have no preference. Either works.

[sheltonmath]

I prefer LaTex because there is better control. Word does not always transfer nicely.

On Thu, Jun 16, 2016 at 2:07 PM, Sean Roberson notifications@github.com wrote:

I have no preference. Either works.

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[trlilley12]

I saw that other groups submitted a 1 page report. I don't remember hearing anything in class about that.

[SZRoberson]

It's in the syllabus/project directions. I can try to chug out 250 words or so (about a page) tonight and post it for you all to check.

[sheltonmath]

I tried to take your presentation and run it through voice recognition to get what you said. Do you want me to write up something from this?

On Jun 20, 2016, at 12:44 PM, Sean Roberson notifications@github.com wrote:

It's in the syllabus/project directions. I can try to chug out 250 words or so (about a page) tonight and post it for you all to check.

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[sheltonmath]

https://www.overleaf.com/5521854nqpmqw

I will set something up here, any of us can change it. I haven't done anything yet.

[SZRoberson]

That'd be okay. I'll still probably draft something.

[JestonBlu]

Has anyone started looking at literature for possible references in the final paper?

[SZRoberson]

What sort of literature may help? Another classmate suggested a source in which these forecasts are done by another organization. I could try to track that one down and see how it can help us.

On Jul 14, 2016 5:39 PM, "Joseph Blubaugh" notifications@github.com wrote:

Has anyone started looking at literature for possible references in the final paper?

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[JestonBlu]

No thats not what I mean. I am listening to lecture 22/23 and he is mentioning that he wants to see literary references for the techniques we have chosen in the final paper.

[sheltonmath]

I have been starting to explore. I really enjoy doing literature reviews. In the last write-up I added a couple of references.

On Jul 14, 2016, at 4:02 PM, Joseph Blubaugh notifications@github.com wrote:

No thats not what I mean. I am listening to lecture 22/23 and he is mentioning that he wants to see literary references for the techniques we have chosen in the final paper.

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[JestonBlu]

Great. Thanks.

On Jul 14, 2016 7:36 PM, "Alison" notifications@github.com wrote:

I have been starting to explore. I really enjoy doing literature reviews. In the last write-up I added a couple of references.

On Jul 14, 2016, at 4:02 PM, Joseph Blubaugh notifications@github.com wrote:

No thats not what I mean. I am listening to lecture 22/23 and he is mentioning that he wants to see literary references for the techniques we have chosen in the final paper.

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[JestonBlu]

Thoughts on the current writeup draft

Section 1.2 Data

"The unemployment data being examined was obtained from the seasonaly adjusted, monthly, Civilian Unemployment Rate Series (UNRATE), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)." We obtained seasonal data originally and then did the adjustment ourselves... I think we can just show a plot of the season data with the seasonally adjusted data next to it and then mention that we decomposed each series by subtracting the seasonal affect from the original data... I dont think we need to show code for that in the presentation either which I noticed were on the slides.

Section 1.3 Figure 4

I think we need to tweak that graph to remove that box or change the ratio so that it does not take up nearly the entire plot. I you want I can tackle that this evening

Section 4.1

I think we should remove the code fragment and just show the tables. We could always refer to our github project (which I can clean up) as the source for our code so people can see what functions we actually used. Also notice that the AIC in the table is different from the AIC extracted with the code. I noticed that the SARIMA produces multiple AIC, so I used the AIC extraction function to pull it out of the model frame at a lower level in the output object. I think this was better because it matches up with the same technique used in the VAR model.

[sheltonmath]

"I think we need to tweak that graph to remove that box or change the ratio so that it does not take up nearly the entire plot. I you want I can tackle that this evening" That would be great.

"I think we should remove the code fragment and just show the tables. We could always refer to our github project (which I can clean up) as the source for our code so people can see what functions we actually used. Also notice that the AIC in the table is different from the AIC extracted with the code. I noticed that the SARIMA produces multiple AIC, so I used the AIC extraction function to pull it out of the model frame at a lower level in the output object. I think this was better because it matches up with the same technique used in the VAR model."

Got it. I'll put this as a comment in the file so I don't forget to address it.

On Mon, Jul 25, 2016 at 6:55 AM, Joseph Blubaugh notifications@github.com wrote:

Thoughts on the current writeup draft Section 1.2 Data

"The unemployment data being examined was obtained from the seasonaly adjusted, monthly, Civilian Unemployment Rate Series (UNRATE), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)." We obtained seasonal data originally and then did the adjustment ourselves... I think we can just show a plot of the season data with the seasonally adjusted data next to it and then mention that we decomposed each series by subtracting the seasonal affect from the original data... I dont think we need to show code for that in the presentation either which I noticed were on the slides. Section 1.3 Figure 4

I think we need to tweak that graph to remove that box or change the ratio so that it does not take up nearly the entire plot. I you want I can tackle that this evening Section 4.1

I think we should remove the code fragment and just show the tables. We could always refer to our github project (which I can clean up) as the source for our code so people can see what functions we actually used. Also notice that the AIC in the table is different from the AIC extracted with the code. I noticed that the SARIMA produces multiple AIC, so I used the AIC extraction function to pull it out of the model frame at a lower level in the output object. I think this was better because it matches up with the same technique used in the VAR model.

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[trlilley12]

Here is a rough draft of my contributions. I was thinking that everyone can write their own, and we can put everyone's at the end of the paper. I was very detailed, per Dr. P's instructions. Also, many of us did the same things, so I think it's fine if our lists of contributions overlap considerably. If anything, it makes our group look more collaborative, since we all tried to participate in the entire process and checked each other's work along the way.

stat626 group project contributions.docx

[sheltonmath]

Thank you. I like that idea. We can add it as a side document.