Joel-Miller-Lab / InfectiousMath

This is intended to provide a set of self-contained examples, much like the Mudd math fun facts which demonstrate mathematics through biological examples.
MIT License
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Probability of infection #7

Open joelmiller opened 3 years ago

joelmiller commented 3 years ago

Probability zero independent events happen is product of probabilities that each individual event doesn't happen.

Probability an event happens is 1-P(not happening)

So probability of infection if a fraction \rho infected in a population of size N, each transmitting with probability R0/N to individual of interest is 1- (1-R0/N)^(\rho N) = 1-((1-R0/N)^N)^\rho \approx 1 - e^{-R0 \rho) if N is large.

but this probability is equal to \rho. So we've got the final size relation.