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JohnCRuf / alderman_machine

This is the repository for a research project investigating clientelistic politics in Chicago
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Custom DiD Estimator? #37

Closed JohnCRuf closed 1 year ago

JohnCRuf commented 1 year ago

I need to consider using a custom-built estimator for this "close elections DiD" thing.

Under the close election assumption, I have treatment randomization over wards. However, because the "treatment" is having a "tied" alderman replaced, I dosage correlates to net votes. Furthermore, under the close election assumption, precinct-level net votes don't significantly change when treated or untreated.

Thus, I effectively see the "counter-factual dosage" each precinct would have gotten if their alderman had been reelected. I'm effectively matching on this "dosage" and then running a DiD, but this leads to a lower power than if I can use all of the 50 precincts available in each ward.

Traditional DiD estimators (e.g., https://bcallaway11.github.io/posts/five-minute-did-continuous-treatment) assume that you can't see this "counterfactual dosage," but in this case, we can.

JohnCRuf commented 1 year ago

After discussing this possibility with Tomas (not @tmalthouse), I no longer think that this is wise.