JuliaJLee
commented
3 weeks ago Thank you for your feedback! Your comments were very helpful for strengthening our proposed methodology.
Closed ShaotongLi-Max closed 3 weeks ago
JuliaJLee
commented
3 weeks ago Thank you for your feedback! Your comments were very helpful for strengthening our proposed methodology.
Summary
The manuscript presents a comprehensive survey methodology aimed at predicting the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, particularly focusing on voter behavior regarding the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. It outlines a $100K budget allocation for a mixed-methods approach to recruitment, aiming for a sample size of 3,000 respondents. The methodology is well-structured, addressing key factors such as stratified sampling, bias mitigation, recruitment strategies, and data validation techniques to ensure representative and reliable results.
Strong Positive Points:
The manuscript effectively outlines a clear budget and recruitment strategy, demonstrating a solid understanding of the challenges in polling diverse demographics. The inclusion of comprehensive data validation techniques, including weighting adjustments and fraud detection measures, strengthens the credibility of the proposed methodology. The document's structure is logical, facilitating easy navigation through the methodology, sampling approach, and recruitment strategies.
Critical Improvements Needed:
Clarification of Target Population:
While the target population is mentioned, a clearer definition of "voters" is necessary. It should specify whether this includes only likely voters or all eligible voters. Clarifying this distinction is crucial for understanding the sampling strategy's effectiveness.
Sampling Strategy Detail:
The stratification approach needs more elaboration. A more detailed explanation of how different demographic factors (e.g., age, race, political affiliation) will be weighted and their impact on the overall analysis should be included.
Bias Mitigation:
The discussion on bias mitigation could benefit from further depth. Specifically, addressing how the proposed budget allocation will adequately cover the recruitment of harder-to-reach demographics (like rural voters) is vital. Providing more details about the strategies for minimizing non-response bias would enhance the methodology's robustness.
Response Rate Estimations:
The expected response rates for different recruitment methods should be better justified. Providing empirical evidence or references to similar studies could strengthen the credibility of these estimates.
Suggestions for Improvement:
Title Enhancement:
Consider refining the title to reflect the specific methodologies employed. Including terms like "mixed-methods recruitment" could clarify the focus of the study.
Inclusion of Preliminary Data Analysis:
Including preliminary findings or pilot study results could provide context for the proposed methods and demonstrate their potential effectiveness.
Visual Aids: Adding flowcharts or diagrams to illustrate the recruitment and sampling process could improve clarity and comprehension for readers.
Discussion on Implementation:
A brief discussion on potential challenges and limitations in implementing the proposed methodology would provide a more balanced view and prepare for potential pitfalls in the field.
Budget Breakdown:
A more detailed breakdown of how the budget will be allocated across different recruitment strategies would enhance transparency and allow for better evaluation of cost-effectiveness.
Evaluation:
R is appropriately cited: 1/1 Data are appropriately cited: 0/1 Class paper: 1/1 LLM usage is documented: 1/1 Title: 1.5/2 Author, date, and repo: 2/2 Abstract: 0/4 Introduction: 1.5/4 Estimand: 0/1 Data: 4/10 Measurement: 2/4 Model: 1/10 Results: 3/10 Discussion: 1/10 Prose: 1.5/6 Cross-references: 1/1 Captions: 0.5/2 Graphs/tables/etc.: 2/4 Idealized methodology: 4/10 Idealized survey: 3/4 Pollster methodology overview and evaluation: 6/10 Referencing: 2/4 Commits: 1.5/2 Sketches: 0/2 Simulation: 2/4 Tests-simulation: 2/4 Tests-actual: 2/4 Parquet: 0/1 Reproducible workflow: 1.5/4 Miscellaneous: 0/3
Estimated Overall Mark: 47 out of 126
Any Other Comments:
The manuscript provides a solid foundation for understanding the proposed polling methodology. Enhancing clarity in key areas and addressing the critical improvements suggested will significantly strengthen the overall presentation and effectiveness of the research.