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JunyDeveloper / GamblingModLethalCompany

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Odds are Fucked #42

Open BellaBeaBaby opened 5 months ago

BellaBeaBaby commented 5 months ago

I know they are configurable, but with the default odds the EV is 1.42 which makes it less of a last resort and more of an infinite money machine, maybe tweak it a bit?

MacOwen commented 5 months ago

Came here to say the same thing. Changing the default odds to these values will be more accurate (0.96 EV):

MGJerry commented 5 months ago

Guys, the entire point of having configurable values is to leave it up to the players. A chill EV value of 1.42 is more geared towards somewhat casual modded players who just download mods and never touch any config files. The fact that you guys are here means you are more experienced, then change the values of the mod to fit your's/your group's need.

With that said, gamblers will always find a way to make an infinite money. The example is my group of 4 gambling addicts who still somehow get a whoopie cushion to 10k+ with this config (0.7675 EV)

MacOwen commented 5 months ago

The issue is that even if players go out of their way to configure the odds, it makes way more sense for the default odds to be fair. Based on how slot machines work in 90% of games, most players will usually assume the odds are either fair or biased against them, so giving players an extreme advantage without their knowledge seems misleading. Most people aren't going to go out of their way to read the mod documentation and calculate the EV themselves, and therefore will instead just assume they're extremely lucky. The idea that gamblers will always find a way to make infinite money is impossible is the EV is <=1.0, so tweaking the default odds does make a significant difference.

MGJerry commented 5 months ago

and therefore will instead just assume they're extremely lucky.

Then all the power to them, let them have fun while at it. The point of playing multiplayer games is to have fun whether with your buddies or random players. If people think this mod is NOT fun and want to be more serious at the game, they either would not have installed this mod or done one of the following:

The idea that gamblers will always find a way to make infinite money is impossible is the EV

This is like saying that gamblers will always lose at the game. Statistically, if they keep playing to the end then yes, MOST gamblers will eventually lose and the house always win. However, we're talking about people who will play about 10-100 rounds (200+ if you are an addict enough), then there is a chance that some will make a ridiculous amount of credits, enough to fulfill multiple quotas. To sum up my point of this and previous reply, it's that "the math doesn not matters since it's only theoretical, as long as people are fine with it".

Ok that's it for my opinions since I'm not a math major. However, if you do want to hear the opinions of a math major (and also a gambling addict) then I leave it in the summary down below, just to ease people's eyes.

Prepare for a long af essay my friend wrote (Don't say I didn't warn you)

With that said, not to come off rude but your suggested odds with your oh-so-proud EV of 0.96 isn't really fair either, in worst case I would call it extremely unfair and not enjoyable.

Yes, an overall 0.96 seems pretty reasonable, _but have you accounted for the individual odds?_ 25% of worthless scraps is essentially flipping 2 coins and if they both land on tails, you can't gamble with those scraps anymore. Within 5 rolls, an average ~75% of your scraps would become worthless, and a further 5 more would make that 95% (and this is not even accounting for your ~50% chance of halving the value yet). This is why sometimes statistics can be misleading and in this case I believe this falls into the Simpson's Paradox. Looking at the entire picture is a good thing, but sometimes you gotta pay attention to the smaller details.

To be fair, the odds that our group play with ain't exactly fair either (but it was purposefully made that way), with the amount of scraps becoming worthless being ~70% within 5 rolls and ~90% within 10. _However, that is only if our world follows the theoretical math_. In reality, people stop at different points, so the theoretical gain/loss doesn't really match the actual ones. People who like to play _"safe"_ like the guy who owns this account? Around 500-1000+ credits. For me and some gambling addicts? As high as it goes. Did I lost multiple high value scraps as high as 10k or even 100k credits? Yes. Do I regret it? Somewhat, but it's all parts of the experience.

Anyways, if it was me, I would say the odds below are pretty fine

  • Jackpot (10x): 1%
  • Triple (3x): 5%
  • Double (2x): 19%
  • Half (0.5x): 65%
  • Zero (0x): 10%

Would you look at that, an EV of 0.955, awfully close to yours ain't it. However, theoretically speaking, there will only be about ~40% and ~65% of scraps that will become worthless after 5 and 10 rolls respectively. With those odds, although you can keep playing for a while, there's still decent odds of you losing. Even though that's the case, if you are lucky and don't hit that 10% chance, you have a slight edge over the house (1.06 EV). This is why EV matters sometimes and other times not at all. It's the 0x multiplier that fuck up everything. Cheers mate.