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14 May - why algo trade is hard? #26

Open daijapan opened 1 month ago

daijapan commented 1 month ago

Certainly! Here are unsolved problems in pure mathematics related to each of the five points that contribute to the difficulty of algorithmic trading:

  1. Stochastic Processes and Uncertainty:

    • Problem: Nonlinear Filtering Problem
      • Description: The nonlinear filtering problem involves estimating the state of a system modeled by a nonlinear stochastic differential equation from noisy observations. Despite progress in special cases, a general solution remains elusive. This problem is crucial for accurately predicting and responding to market movements in real-time.
  2. Optimization in High Dimensions:

    • Problem: Global Optimization for Non-Convex Functions
      • Description: Finding global optima for non-convex functions is a fundamental challenge in high-dimensional optimization. This is particularly relevant in trading algorithm parameter tuning, where the objective function landscape can have many local optima. Developing efficient algorithms for global optimization in high dimensions remains an open problem.
  3. Statistical Arbitrage and Mean Reversion:

    • Problem: Optimal Stopping Theory for Complex Stochastic Processes
      • Description: Optimal stopping problems involve determining the time to take a particular action to maximize expected reward or minimize cost, given a stochastic process. For complex processes encountered in financial markets, finding optimal stopping rules is mathematically challenging and largely unsolved, especially when dealing with multi-dimensional and non-Markovian processes.
  4. Machine Learning and Overfitting:

    • Problem: Generalization Bounds for Deep Learning Models
      • Description: While deep learning models are powerful, understanding why they generalize well and how to provide tight theoretical bounds on their generalization error remains unsolved. This is critical in algo trading to ensure that models trained on historical data perform well on future, unseen data.
  5. High-Frequency Data and Latency:

    • Problem: Modeling Market Microstructure Noise
      • Description: High-frequency trading data is affected by market microstructure noise, which obscures the true underlying price process. Developing robust mathematical models to accurately separate signal from noise in such high-frequency environments is an open problem. This involves advanced stochastic calculus and time series analysis techniques.

These unsolved problems highlight the deep mathematical challenges at the heart of algorithmic trading and illustrate the need for further research and breakthroughs in these areas.