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KuChainNetwork / Project-Decalogue

Collecting general advices to improve KuChain
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[DOC] Predict market Requirements document #5

Open iadpay opened 4 years ago

iadpay commented 4 years ago

[DOC] Predict market Requirements document

*Type of Proposal**

Background

The previous Issues talk about the AMM, in order to use AMM as a price feed oracle for KuChain.

As a price feed of assets, AMM is good enough, But for the chain and other developer the off-chain event result is important too. Predict market allow everyone to create a free bilateral or multilateral market on kuchain, and they can trade the different result of the event during a period of time, before the event have been revealed, each result have a shares market (similar to AMM) for trader.

And the price of each share in market, have positive correlation with current probability of option.

Before the off-chain event reveal result in real world ,the trader can buy the shares of the options or sell the shares they have had.

For instance: Bob deposite 1000 KCS and create a Predict market about off-chain event -- "its will be raining before the end of tomorrow in BeijIng" this event has two options, one is raining and another is not raining, and this market wil close before 12 o'clock tomorrow.

So Bob's predict event have two share market for each result . The user who believe that tomorrow will be rain in Beijing, will buy the raining market's shares, the other who think tomorrow not gonna raining will buy the not rainingmarket's shares.

Use the LMSR（logarithmic Market scoring rule）algorithm,the share market is a AMM market that allow traders make deal with the on-chain algorithm，the more user buy the shares, the price of per share will get higher, the more user sell their shares ,the price get lower, and the algorithm can adjust the share price about the other option‘s share market. When the raining share price rise, the not raining shares price down.

As time goes on ,traders can get more information of the event ,and the options of the off-chain event has change their probability.

Trader will reappraisal the probability of the result, they will make new decision about sell and buy the shares.

The shares price of different options will get high volatility cause the trader make order .

When the market close, which share market is highest share price that means the options is represent the real world event result.

Describe The Proposal (No more than 50 words)

I suggest KuChain can support the on-chain predict market, that make the chain have ability to recognize the event result of the real world -- a Oracle solution for off-chain event.

Business Model (Optional for underlying technology)

The on-chain predict market can contribute huge amount of gas fees just like a Dex on Kuchain.

At the same time ,kuchain have get the ability to provide off-chain result about every event.

The predict market is a base service can packaging as insurance product,bet market or hedge products and social prediction market by developer.

Validator and the developer will make more profit , the trader will get interest arbitrage profit.

Implementation Steps (Optional for economic model)

Refer the Augur projrct and integrate with current on-chain governance module，the market and trade module is relatively independent and markets use KCS as standard currency.

Timetable (Optional)

Implementation Steps Time Consuming
step 1 Implement the LMSR market on-chain
step 2 Market module for market creation
step 3 Integrate with current governance module.
step 4 testing
Total duration two month

Contact Information

iadpay@outlook.com

ridhataq commented 4 years ago

I know Project Decalogue's rules say "one account can only publish one proposal", but is one person allowed to submit different proposal using different account? Because I just realized that issue #4 and issue #5 have similar contact information, both using "iadpay" name with different email hosting. I'm not saying they're the same person, but there's a possibility for that. Technically, it doesn't break the rule, since it comes from different account, I just wondered if that kind of action is allowed to submit more than one proposal without breaking the rule. Plus, the "Describe The Proposal" part in issue #5 is way more than 50 words.

iadpay1 iadpay2

Pisces-Anjou commented 4 years ago

Hi,

Thanks for commenting.

It is clearly stated in the rules that "one account can only publish one proposal, otherwise all of your proposals will be considered invalid." We hope to get as many good proposals as possible.

We did notice that the description part of this proposal is more than 50 words. Since this proposal is very professional and we thought it would be our loss if we close such a good idea directly. Thus actually we have sent email to this submitter to remind him/her to strictly follow the template format and modify his proposal. If the proposal has not been modified to follow the template format by the end of the event, it will be closed.

Thanks for your attention. Please keep trying and help us improve our chain.

Regards KuChain team

iadpay commented 4 years ago

Updated, thanks for remind @Pisces-Anjou