MEDSL / 2022-elections-official

Official returns for the 2022 Midterm Elections
15 stars 3 forks source link

Arkansas State House and State Senate Elections have NULL district #7

Closed NickCrews closed 7 months ago

NickCrews commented 7 months ago

Analyzing the data using ibis (I can give a full repro script if you really need it)

district_isnull = _.district.isnull() | (_.district == "NULL")

gb = (
    t.group_by(
        [
            "state_po",
            "office",
            "year",
        ]
    )
    .agg(
        n=_.count(),
        n_null=district_isnull.sum(),
        n_notnull=(~district_isnull).sum(),
        fraction_null=district_isnull.mean(),
    )
    .order_by(
        _.fraction_null.desc(),
        _.state_po,
        _.office,
        _.year,
    )
)
gb = gb[_.n_null > 0]
ibis.options.repr.interactive.max_rows = 100
display(gb)
ibis.options.repr.interactive.max_rows = 10

gives:

┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ state_po ┃ office       ┃ year  ┃ n     ┃ n_null ┃ n_notnull ┃ fraction_null ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│ string   │ string       │ int64 │ int64 │ int64  │ int64     │ float64       │
├──────────┼──────────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────────┼───────────────┤
│ AK       │ US HOUSE     │  2022 │  2088 │   2088 │         0 │      1.000000 │
│ AR       │ STATE HOUSE  │  2022 │ 15433 │  15433 │         0 │      1.000000 │
│ AR       │ STATE SENATE │  2022 │ 14747 │  14747 │         0 │      1.000000 │
│ LA       │ STATE HOUSE  │  2022 │   398 │    398 │         0 │      1.000000 │
│ VT       │ STATE SENATE │  2022 │   236 │     95 │       141 │      0.402542 │
│ VT       │ STATE HOUSE  │  2022 │   368 │     54 │       314 │      0.146739 │
│ IA       │ STATE HOUSE  │  2022 │  5491 │    508 │      4983 │      0.092515 │
│ IA       │ STATE SENATE │  2022 │  4031 │    256 │      3775 │      0.063508 │
│ WA       │ STATE SENATE │  2022 │  7539 │    406 │      7133 │      0.053853 │
│ WA       │ US HOUSE     │  2022 │ 16044 │    150 │     15894 │      0.009349 │
│ IN       │ STATE SENATE │  2018 │  8898 │     68 │      8830 │      0.007642 │
│ AZ       │ US HOUSE     │  2022 │  7894 │     38 │      7856 │      0.004814 │
│ UT       │ STATE HOUSE  │  2022 │  5016 │      6 │      5010 │      0.001196 │
│ MI       │ STATE SENATE │  2022 │ 22468 │     18 │     22450 │      0.000801 │
└──────────┴──────────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────────┴───────────────┘

The Alaska state house races are a different easily solved issue, but the arkansas races really are a problem due to teh underlying data being insufficient.

Either we should actually track down this data, or this should be a more obvious warning in the README section on Arkansas

sbaltzmit commented 7 months ago

Great catch, thanks. This is clearly a mistake, it looks as though we overlooked that the raw data files were missing district information for state house elections. I'll get someone to look into this.

sbaltzmit commented 7 months ago

It should be fixed now, thanks again for noticing the missing district information!