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MaREI-EPMG / tim-gas-study-2022

TIM natural gas study
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Coal in RES #13

Open daly-h opened 1 year ago

daly-h commented 1 year ago

There are 4 Mt unmitigated emissions in RES in CB2 and some also in CB1 - could be due to overly stringent fuel shares as coal is still coming through?

image

daly-h commented 1 year ago

And peat!

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jayomacg commented 1 year ago

I do not have the gas study on my laptop, but I do remember in the initial TIM release that residential peat and coal were restrained from the additional assumptions file, this issue could be related to the additional assumptions applied.

olejandro commented 1 year ago

I've disabled all the remaining constraints in the RSD_UC file and added max growth rates on the fuel consumption in RSD instead. I have not checked the additional assumptions file, but let's see how different the new results are.

olejandro commented 1 year ago

This is how it looks in d57201feaf0550c566d26724df18990f834f1ac5 in Sectoral CBs image

olejandro commented 1 year ago

Strange that FEC doubles by 2050

daly-h commented 1 year ago

There is still peat and coal, which I would not expect as there are still unmitigated emissions in CB1 and CB2.

Is Solar PV (microgen) or solar heat? @olejandro can you adjust the legend to specify? It's not coming through in any of the other charts for FEC in apartments etc. It would make sense if it's PV for grid export, but then it should be treated differently in the results.

daly-h commented 1 year ago

Also growth of natural gas in CB2 here doesn't make sense to me:

image

olejandro commented 1 year ago

There is still peat and coal, which I would not expect as there are still unmitigated emissions in CB1 and CB2.

Is Solar PV (microgen) or solar heat? @olejandro can you adjust the legend to specify? It's not coming through in any of the other charts for FEC in apartments etc. It would make sense if it's PV for grid export, but then it should be treated differently in the results.

No, it is solar for heating. We don't have PV in RSD.

olejandro commented 1 year ago

...but since solar heating is not actually used anywhere, it must be some constraint / modelling artifact forcing it.

olejandro commented 1 year ago

This is how it changed in 76306714d6fa74d8c4feadda186c23c57ce37a99: image

olejandro commented 1 year ago

Seems that coal really wants to stay... 😰 Everything related to RSD is now gone from additional assumption. Will check RSD processes / commodity flows!