Testing strategies of betting on horse races in GTA Online. Calculating adjusted advantage compared to the odds and using Kelly Criterion to determine bet size, then simulating games.
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What is the best bet when Kelly says not to bet at all? #1
Sometimes there are situations when the house wins in any case, there's no edge. What is the best strategy in this case?
Just stop playing? Probably not, missing out on all those cases when a player has an advantage. Actually does player has advantage on average?
Just bet minimum bet on the bet with the highest probability? But then we also giving out the most advantage in %...
Bet the minimum bet on the highest Kelly option? This should probably give the best results, if we're betting on option that has the highest expected rate of payout over the long run. But I'm not sure. From my simulations it looks a bit weird...
Sometimes there are situations when the house wins in any case, there's no edge. What is the best strategy in this case?