search

Maxim-Mazurok / gtao-betting

Testing strategies of betting on horse races in GTA Online. Calculating adjusted advantage compared to the odds and using Kelly Criterion to determine bet size, then simulating games.
1 stars 0 forks source link

Randomness check for Apollo on FiveM #5

Open Maxim-Mazurok opened 6 months ago

Maxim-Mazurok commented 6 months ago

In here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z27GEyrFVnBBZcCJ-w2QDZS9LKDiZfK2wvD02UxifzE/edit#gid=1587400911 I was checking how randomness works in custom implementation of inside track in FiveM on Apollo server. I was recording winning odds in each race, and they using chi square to evaluate chances of those wins being in line with declared horse chances. Basically I wanted to check if it's totally random, or if horse chances actually are taken into account. And I can see with my eyes that yes, they are most likely are taken into account. And I also can see that chi square value for horse wins has much less than 0.5% chance of being completely random. But it also has less than 1% chance of being in proportion to the horse chances, which seems unintuitive... Maybe I'm calculating chi square wrong? Maybe 200 games is not enough?

Maybe it has something to do with expected frequencies being less than 5, which is kinda rule of thumb to make sure that chi is accurate?...

Maxim-Mazurok commented 6 months ago

Maybe look into Bayes estimator