Metaculus / metaculus

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More precision when <3% or >97% #539

Open hickman-santini opened 4 weeks ago

hickman-santini commented 4 weeks ago

Current behavior

When I forecast 0.5<=x<1.5% "my prediction" shows up as 1%. image

Expected/desired behavior

Instead of rounding to the nearest integer, for CP and My Prediction, can we keep one sig fig? I'd also like to know what the CP is with more precision when it gets sub-1%.

We don't allow sub-0.1% anyway, so this would just have the effect of preserving one place after the decimal point when forecasts get sub-1%.

Alternatively: Keep one place after the decimal point whenever CP or My Prediction get >99% or <1%.

nangchrys commented 4 days ago

I think it's better if the increased precision didn't depend on the exact value. I might want to decay my prediction by a specific non-integer amount every month, but if I don't know the previous values with precision, I would have to recalculate that every time. I think there are many users that do this. Plus, I can't track the evolution of my forecasts with detail.

SylvainChevalier commented 4 days ago

Hummmm. Yes, let's show more precision but only for the user prediction, not for the CP.

So: