Author: Caitlin Young
Topics: human migration, sea level rise
Summary of Synthesis
Global sea level rise rate is 1.8mm/yr, but in the Gulf of Mexico sea level rise rates range between 5 – 10mm/yr, and rates are particularly high along the Louisiana coast due to subsidence. Sea level rise is a slow moving disaster punctuated by stochastic events such as tropical storms, hurricanes and prolonged drought all of which impact coastal communities. From a hydrologic perspective, sea level rise will affect coastal aquifers which are defined as the zone where saltwater from the ocean interacts with fresh meteoric groundwater. Communities utilize coastal aquifers for both drinking water as well as industry, agriculture and aquaculture purposes. Thus, coastal communities are vulnerable to salinity changes in the coastal aquifer due to both long-term sea level rise and short term stochastic events, particularly from an economic and public health perspective.
Individuals in Gulf of Mexico coastal communities weigh a number of factors when facing the decision to move inland. The salinization of the coastal aquifer is a harbinger for change in coastal ecosystems. As saline water moves inland it alters spawning areas for coastal fish species, oyster productivity, larval shrimp recruitment, waterfowl habitat and many other economically important ecosystem services. A long term disruption in the production of economically important fisheries is likely an important driver of community retreat, but there are multiple stressors within the social framework that impact decision making analysis at the individual level. For example, family history may factor heavily, as generations of families often occupy a single community and therefore an individual may be unwilling to migrate despite large economic losses. Further, employment within the oil and gas industry can economically offset losses within fisheries, although oil and gas markets are volatile and employment is not always available due to global forces.
Our proposed synthesis idea asks the following questions:
1) What is the tipping point for inland migration of coastal communities in the face of sea level rise?
a) What are the key decision making factors when individuals consider inland migration?
2) Using geochemical, public health and economic data, how can we predict the timing of systematic retreat by coastal communities?
3) Once we understand the timing of retreat, can we forecast the needs of communities to help plan a strategic retreat?
We propose to synthesize data from the coast of Louisiana, using Terrebonne and Plaquemines Parishes as model cases. NRDA collected an inventory of economic and ecological losses during the damage assessment phase of the Deepwater Horizon spill. We proposed to utilize this data, and the follow up monitoring data to characterize the economic importance of fisheries to coastal communities. We will use long term monitoring data from the USGS NWIS system to calculate the salinization of coastal aquifers. We will access satellite imagery to calculate land use change along the parish coastline due to coastal aquifer salinization. Finally, we will access available public health and census data to examine migration patterns within families of the coastal communities.
We expect the synthesis of this data will be broad reaching, at first within Louisiana and then across the Gulf of Mexico’s five states. The Louisiana Master Plan, which outlines the coastal restoration plan for Louisiana, contains a series of projects that aim to improve the ecosystem and economic outcomes of the coastline. During the Master Plan update period, which occurs every five years, the proposed projects are ranked according to economic and ecosystem priority. This ranking determines the funding priorities list and ultimately project implementation. The proposed synthesis will assist decision makers in prioritizing restoration projects, a critical need, as the state currently does not synthesize economic and ecologic data to determine the funding priorities list. Further, this synthesis will help individual Gulf Coast communities evaluate the timing of the threat of sea level rise. In the past individual communities have chosen to move inland as a group, particularly Native American communities. We see this synthesis as a critical need to evaluate sea level rise strategic retreat at both the state level, particularly for Louisiana, and at the individual community level.
Author: Caitlin Young Topics: human migration, sea level rise
Summary of Synthesis
Global sea level rise rate is 1.8mm/yr, but in the Gulf of Mexico sea level rise rates range between 5 – 10mm/yr, and rates are particularly high along the Louisiana coast due to subsidence. Sea level rise is a slow moving disaster punctuated by stochastic events such as tropical storms, hurricanes and prolonged drought all of which impact coastal communities. From a hydrologic perspective, sea level rise will affect coastal aquifers which are defined as the zone where saltwater from the ocean interacts with fresh meteoric groundwater. Communities utilize coastal aquifers for both drinking water as well as industry, agriculture and aquaculture purposes. Thus, coastal communities are vulnerable to salinity changes in the coastal aquifer due to both long-term sea level rise and short term stochastic events, particularly from an economic and public health perspective.
Individuals in Gulf of Mexico coastal communities weigh a number of factors when facing the decision to move inland. The salinization of the coastal aquifer is a harbinger for change in coastal ecosystems. As saline water moves inland it alters spawning areas for coastal fish species, oyster productivity, larval shrimp recruitment, waterfowl habitat and many other economically important ecosystem services. A long term disruption in the production of economically important fisheries is likely an important driver of community retreat, but there are multiple stressors within the social framework that impact decision making analysis at the individual level. For example, family history may factor heavily, as generations of families often occupy a single community and therefore an individual may be unwilling to migrate despite large economic losses. Further, employment within the oil and gas industry can economically offset losses within fisheries, although oil and gas markets are volatile and employment is not always available due to global forces.
Our proposed synthesis idea asks the following questions:
1) What is the tipping point for inland migration of coastal communities in the face of sea level rise? a) What are the key decision making factors when individuals consider inland migration? 2) Using geochemical, public health and economic data, how can we predict the timing of systematic retreat by coastal communities? 3) Once we understand the timing of retreat, can we forecast the needs of communities to help plan a strategic retreat?
We propose to synthesize data from the coast of Louisiana, using Terrebonne and Plaquemines Parishes as model cases. NRDA collected an inventory of economic and ecological losses during the damage assessment phase of the Deepwater Horizon spill. We proposed to utilize this data, and the follow up monitoring data to characterize the economic importance of fisheries to coastal communities. We will use long term monitoring data from the USGS NWIS system to calculate the salinization of coastal aquifers. We will access satellite imagery to calculate land use change along the parish coastline due to coastal aquifer salinization. Finally, we will access available public health and census data to examine migration patterns within families of the coastal communities.
We expect the synthesis of this data will be broad reaching, at first within Louisiana and then across the Gulf of Mexico’s five states. The Louisiana Master Plan, which outlines the coastal restoration plan for Louisiana, contains a series of projects that aim to improve the ecosystem and economic outcomes of the coastline. During the Master Plan update period, which occurs every five years, the proposed projects are ranked according to economic and ecosystem priority. This ranking determines the funding priorities list and ultimately project implementation. The proposed synthesis will assist decision makers in prioritizing restoration projects, a critical need, as the state currently does not synthesize economic and ecologic data to determine the funding priorities list. Further, this synthesis will help individual Gulf Coast communities evaluate the timing of the threat of sea level rise. In the past individual communities have chosen to move inland as a group, particularly Native American communities. We see this synthesis as a critical need to evaluate sea level rise strategic retreat at both the state level, particularly for Louisiana, and at the individual community level.