[21pt] Use road closure data to validate bridge healing enhancement

[CarsonPruitt-NOAA]

Another way to test out the bridges would be to figure out at what recurrence interval each falls under and produce some stats from that. The NWM recurrence data is here: /data/inundation_review/inundation_nwm_recurr/nwm_recurr_flow_data/nwm21_17C_recurr_*.csv

The end result should be something like 5% of bridges inundate during a 10-yr flood, 15% during a 25-yr, 30% during a 50-yr, 40% during a 100-yr and the rest are dry even at a 100-yr flood .

[ZahraGhahremani]

This is the result for the Missouri road closure data for flooding event at 04/25/2024. 7% of bridges for this specific case remains dry even at a 100-yr flood.

Recurrence interval	threatened	at risk	not at risk	total inundation
2-yr	21%	41%	38%	62%
5-yr	45%	34%	21%	79%
10-yr	55%	31%	14%	86%
25-yr	67%	23%	10%	90%
50-yr	75%	16%	9%	91%
100-yr	80%	13%	7%	93%

[ZahraGhahremani]

Another way for validation this is using the road closure data and flow file associated with the recent flooding event. There are some closed roads reported by DOT where we do not have any bridge point for those areas. The blue line shows closed road reported by DOT.

By focusing on closed roads that have associated bridge, 56% of bridges were listed as not at risk while actually closed due to flooding.	Risk Status	%
not at risk	56%
at risk	45%	25%
threatened	19%

[ZahraGhahremani]

This is the result for the Missouri road closure data for flooding event at 04/25/2024 using the new AEP (NWM v3).

Recurrence interval	threatened	at risk	not at risk	total inundation
2-yr	13%	16%	71%	29%
5-yr	22%	38%	40%	60%
10-yr	35%	47%	18%	82%
25-yr	57%	26%	17%	83%
50-yr	60%	26%	14%	86%