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NOAA-SWPC / GSMWAM-IPE

Coupled NEMS app for WAM-IPE
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global mean neutral density product plot for 3day solar wind driven + 3day Kp forecast driven #74

Closed ZhuxiaoLi66 closed 10 months ago

ZhuxiaoLi66 commented 1 year ago

DEN_xy_opr_20150311_0316_obs_forecast DEN_xy_opr_20150313_0319_obs_forecast DEN_xy_opr_20150316_0321_obs_forecast

ZhuxiaoLi66 commented 1 year ago

DEN_xy_opr_20150317_18UT_3days_CONOUP1_CONOUP2 DEN_xy_opr_20150317_18UT_3days_CONOUP1_CONOUP2_obs_driven_2

ZhuxiaoLi66 commented 1 year ago

Tim, the above two plots are our test scheme plots to show the advantage of CONOUP2 run over CONOUP1 run during storm time. As discussed, the current time is 18UT of Mar.17 indicated by the gray vertical line. its right side is the WAM-IPE forecasts. The left side is the nowcast+analysis simulations with obs data kicked in. the red line is the CONOUPS2 with the obs KP and obs SW variables before and at 18UT, and the blue line is the CONOUPS1 with the obs KP only. the forecast part after 18UT shows the CONOUPS2 falling down to CONOUPS1 without the obs SW. both the KP and SW here are supposed to be forecasted variables. I add the black dashed curve line showing the run with both the obs KP and SW after 18UT which looks as the real fact (goal) and how well CONOUPS2 can catch it against CONOUPS1. please tell me your feel and idea about the plots.

timfullerrowell commented 1 year ago

Thanks Zhuxiao,

Definitely on the right track.

Suggestions:

  1. Cut the red line after the real-time on CONOPS2.
  2. Continue the blue line where the red line is now in the forecast.
  3. Spelling CONOPS1 CONOPS2 4 Change caption to CONOP1 - perfect forecast
  4. Can we add a line for a: CONOPS1 - realistic forecast For this line can you make up a line like the blue line, where it doesn't follow the response at all and captures only about half the response of the perfect Kp

On Fri, Feb 10, 2023 at 1:32 PM ZhuxiaoLi @.***> wrote:

Tim, the above two plots are our test scheme plots to show the advantage of CONOUP2 run over CONOUP1 run during storm time. As discussed, the current time is 18UT of Mar.17 indicated by the gray vertical line. its right side is the WAM-IPE forecasts. The left side is the nowcast+analysis simulations with obs data kicked in. the red line is the CONOUPS2 with the obs KP and obs SW variables before and at 18UT, and the blue line is the CONOUPS1 with the obs KP only. the forecast part after 18UT shows the CONOUPS2 falling down to CONOUPS1 without the obs SW. both the KP and SW here are supposed to be forecasted variables. I add the black dashed curve line showing the run with both the obs KP and SW after 18UT which looks as the real fact (goal) and how well CONOUPS2 can catch it against CONOUPS1. please tell me your feel and idea about the plots.

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ZhuxiaoLi66 commented 1 year ago

Tim & Tzu-Wei, the updated version of the CONOPS1 & 2 performance plot for the 2015 St. Patrick storm is here. Tim, I make the 'current time' line explained in the regular legend box, which will make it less confusing.

DEN_xy_opr_20150317_18UT_3days_CONOPS12_6lines_legend