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NREL / BioproductTransitionDynamics

A system dynamics decision support tool for bioproduct industry stakeholders who want to investigate how their decisions can impact the process of bioproducts gaining U.S. market share.
https://bioenergymodels.nrel.gov/models/14/
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Select base case for sensitivity analysis #74

Closed bwbush closed 4 years ago

bwbush commented 4 years ago

Are there particular base cases we should use for the sensitivity analysis?

I'm concerned that the default values in the model don't correspond to any particular prospective bioproduct. Recall that in our previous sensitivity analyses we had six base cases for succinic acid: large vs small plants; fossil vs sugar vs cellulosic feedstock.

Ideally, we should have the following six base cases. Can we develop .cin files for these?

  Fossil Incumbent (Existing Market) Bio Incumbent (Existing Market) No Incumbent (New Market)
Niche (Low Demand)      
Commodity (High Demand)      
rjhanes commented 4 years ago

How about we replace the three market scenarios with two: performance advantaged and direct replacement? I think that will relate more directly to the analysis.

We should probably discuss the new market scenario in more depth - it's a really interesting case but I don't know if focusing on it will add a lot of value to the analysis (plus will require some minor redoing of the market share logic).

I'm working on developing .cin files for these scenarios. I'll likely create a template file and then six usable files, one for each scenario. The new files will be in dev

rjhanes commented 4 years ago

Base case .cin files were added to dev at 81b80b9

The following parameters were used to define the base cases:

incumbent price response magnitude initial market size market growth rate long term market size bioproduct performance advantage retrofit delay bioproduct long term price incumbent starting price