Closed bwbush closed 4 years ago
rjhanes
commented
4 years ago Questions and comments for discussion:
rjhanes
commented
4 years ago I picked out a relatively small subset of outputs and organized them by questions of interest. I was pretty conservative and left out a lot of variables that could still be informative, thinking that manual troubleshooting will eliminate the need to save many variables from the sensitivity runs.
bwbush
commented
4 years ago @rjhanes, I think the list is sufficient to build a Gantt chart and don't see anything significant missing. I think we can close this issue, and open a new issue if we want to add more output.
rjhanes
commented
4 years ago Sounds good to me
Which of the following output variables should be tested for sensitivity?
BS Cumulative CashBS Cumulative DepreciationBS Cumulative Equity from Capital IncentivesBS Cumulative Equity from InvestorsBS Cumulative Property Plant EquipmentBS Retained EarningsBS accumulating equityBS assetsBS balanceBS imbalanceBS net property plant equipmentBS retaining earningsCFS equipment depreciationCFS net cashCFS net cash provided by investing activitiesCFS net cash used in financing activitiesCFS net change of cash and cash equivalentsCFS net issuance of equityCFS receipt of capital incentivesCommercial Capital ExpenseCompleted DemoingCompleted PilotingCompleted ResearchContinuous Demoing HoursContinuous Piloting HoursCumulative Feedstock ConsumptionCurrent Bioproduct PriceCurrent Commodity Sugar PriceCurrent Corn PriceCurrent Corn Stover PriceCurrent Custom Feedstock PriceCurrent Fossil Feedstock PriceCurrent Incumbent PriceCurrent Perennial PriceCurrent Soybean PriceDemo Capital ExpenseDemoing RateFM earliest positive cash flowFM gross marginFM last positive cash flowFM positive cash flowFM return on investor equityFM return on total equityGovernment Commercial Capital GrantGovernment Demo Capital GrantGovernment Pilot Capital GrantIS Equipment Useful ValueIS Tax Loss Carry ForwardIS earnings before interest taxes depreciationIS equipment depreciationIS equipment depreciation indicatorIS fixed costsIS net incomeIS operating expensesIS purchasing equipmentIS revenuesIS salesIS tax loss currentIS tax loss used or lostIS taxable incomeIS taxes before defermentIS taxes dueIS variable costsNew Market ParticipantsPilot Capital ExpensePiloting RateRegulatory CostsStagegates MissedStages CompletedStages RemainingStartup Demoing HoursStartup Piloting HoursTRL from demoingTRL from pilotingTimeabandoning bioproduct indicatoractual demoing rateactual net incomeactual net income indicatoractual piloting rateactual spendingadvertising impactadvertising spendingallowable spendingbioproduct selling price with green premiumbioproduct supply to demand ratio indicatorchange in bioproduct selling pricechange in commodity sugar pricechange in corn pricechange in corn stover pricechange in custom feedstock pricechange in fossil feedstock pricechange in perennial pricechange in soybean pricechanging incumbent pricecommercial capital costcommercial capital expenditurecommercial capital expenditure dampercommercial capital grantingcommercial feedstock costcommercial fixed operating costcommercial total operating costcommercial variable operating costcommodity sugar monthly change in pricecommodity sugar price trendcompleting stagesconserve spendingcorn monthly change in pricecorn price trendcorn stover monthly change in pricecorn stover price trendcumulative gross revenue from product salescustom feedstock monthly change in pricecustom feedstock price trenddeciding to adoptdemo capital costdemo capital expendituredemo capital grantingdemo feedstock costdemo fixed operating costdemo opexdemo staff salariesdemo variable operating costdemoingdemoing capital expenditure damperdemoing damperdemoing failure randomdemoing failure recovery timedemoing productiondemoing rate deltademoing spendingdemoing spending indicatorexpected hypothetical net incomeexpected idealized internal net present valueexpected investor wait timeexpected successful investor ask rateexpected technology readiness level progressexternal investor decisionfeedstock approval costfeedstock approval timefeedstock consumptionfeedstock pricefeedstock price array[commodity sugar]feedstock price array[corn stover]feedstock price array[corn]feedstock price array[custom]feedstock price array[generic fossil]feedstock price array[generic perennial]feedstock price array[soybean]feedstock selection checkfinal stagegate timefossil feedstock monthly change in pricefossil feedstock price trendgovernment operating grant amountgovernment operating grant amount indicatorgranting decisiongreen premium adjustedhypothetical net incomehypothetical net marginidealized NPVidealized demo completion timeidealized demo construction timeidealized internal expenses present valueidealized pilot completion timeidealized pilot construction timeidealized regulatory cost present valueidealized regulatory waitincumbent favorability indicatorincumbent monthly change in priceincumbent price responseincumbent price response indicatorincumbent price trendinitial project durationinternal capital recovery factorinternal investment amountinternal investor decisioninternal project on time indicatorinternal project start timeinvestor askinvestor ask ratelast recent max IS Equipment Useful Valuelong term discount ratelower bound on probabilitymanagement runway responsemanagement spending controlmanagement spending control indicatormarket growingminimum selling price without green premiummissing stagegatesnew adoptersnew nonadoptersnext investment amountnumber of researchersnumber of stages to completeovercoming inertiapathway approval costpathway approval timeperennial annual fluctuation magnitudeperennial monthly change in priceperennial monthly change in price indicatorperennial price trendpilot and demo spending controlpilot and demo spending control indicatorpilot capital costpilot capital expenditurepilot capital grantingpilot feedstock costpilot fixed operating costpilot opexpilot staff salariespilot variable operating costpilotingpiloting capital expenditure damperpiloting damperpiloting failure randompiloting failure recovery timepiloting productionpiloting rate deltapiloting spendingpiloting spending indicatorprobability of internal project successprobability of successful investor askproduct approval costproduct approval timeproductionproject lagrecent max IS Equipment Useful Valueredemoingredemoing indicatorregulatory process spendingregulatory process spending damperremaining demoing durationremaining investmentremaining piloting durationremaining project durationrepilotingrepiloting indicatorrequired payback periodrequired returnrequired technology readiness levelresearch rateresearch runway responseresearch spending controlresearch spending control indicatorresearchingresearching indicatorshared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[agitated pressurized reactor]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[biological conversion]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[catalytic conversion]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[centrifuge]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[crystallizer]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[distillation]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[enzymatic hydrolysis]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[extraction purification and fuel finishing]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[extraction purification and product finishing]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[fixed bed reactor]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[flash tank]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[hydrolysate clarification]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[lignocellulosic pretreatment and conditioning]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[onsite lignocellulosic biomass processing]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[onsite starch biomass processing]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[solids liquids separation]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[starch biomass fermentation]shared learning for bioproduct to biofuel technology[sugar fermentation]shared learning for feedstock logistics[commodity sugar]shared learning for feedstock logistics[corn stover]shared learning for feedstock logistics[corn]shared learning for feedstock logistics[custom]shared learning for feedstock logistics[generic fossil]shared learning for feedstock logistics[generic perennial]shared learning for feedstock logistics[soybean]shared learning from bioproduct productionshared learning from feedstock logisticssmoothed NPVsmoothed NPV deviationsmoothed NPV deviation fractionsmoothed NPV squaredsoybean monthly change in pricesoybean price trendstartup demoingstartup demoing damperstartup pilotingstartup piloting damperupper bound on probabilityvalue of intellectual propertyvalue thresholdword of mouth impactDid the bioproduct capture market share?
At what point did the bioproduct fail?
Why didn't the bioproduct capture market share?
How was the project funded?