Project plan projection model for UN World Urbanization Prospects

[MaartenHilferink]

The JRC is developing projections of how built-up land and population levels will likely change locally across the globe.

• The first objective of this work is to provide the UN Population Division with projections of the population by Degree of Urbanisation level up to 2100 by the second half of 2024. The UN Population Division would like to include these global projections in their World Urbanization Prospects publication foreseen for early 2025.
• The second objective is to develop a flexible and efficient model that can integrate other population projections and the global SSP scenarios.

ESTATGIS2-000030-6000053089-REQ-01- TA.pdf

Model flow:

1. Regional built-up area projections
2. Regional population projections
3. Determine maximum local changes in built-up area
4. Determine maximum local changes in population
5. Allocate built-up area based on suitability (calibration coefficients -> probability map)
6. Decrease local population due to mortality and migration
7. Allocate positive population in built-up area

[MaartenHilferink]

TASK-00: Project Management

To do:

• [ ] Write project workplan
• [ ] Write progress reports

Deliverables:

• [ ] D00.01 Project WorkPlan: it details the work breakdown, the effort and the project implementation schedule.
• [ ] D00.02.xx Meetings: Discussion points and decisions taken in the course of a meeting are recorded in minutes. A kick-off meeting takes place at the start of the project. More meetings can take place in case of need.
• [ ] D00.03.xx Progress Reports: they should include achievements during the reporting period and forthcoming plans, status of deliverables (deliverable log), risks and mitigation actions (risk log), issues encountered (issue log), decisions taken by the European Commission’s competent authority (decision log). A final “Project Progress Report” will reflect the up-to-date status of all deliverables at the end of the contract

[MaartenHilferink]

TASK-01: GHSL update and assist in calibration and validation

Update the reference layers; assist in generating calibration data and ingesting calibration results in the suitability mapping; and develop a general method to test the empirical validity of the chosen calibration results and modelling approach. All steps agreed with the Project Officer.

To do:

• [x] Add 2023 GHSL data layers
• [x] Set up a way to easily calibrate the model (setup data export for Eric)
• [x] Calibrate the model (by Eric)
• [x] Create distance grids to cities

Deliverables:

• [x] D01.01 Added up-to-date GHSL layers in platform.
• [x] D01.02 Updated modules to create calibration files.
• [x] D01.03 Updated modules to easily ingest calibration results.
• [x] D01.04 Added module to reproduce past built-up and population changes and validate results.

[MaartenHilferink]

TASK-02: Subnational urban density and population change models

Assist with defining usable subnational units (ideally based on a functional area paradigm); implement the subnational models for urban densities and population change on the defined subnational level in the projected mapping mechanism.

To do:

• [x] Set up OSM-network for the whole world
• [x] Add settlement datasets (provided by JRC)
• [x] Add approximate 1km grid points (WGS84 or Mollweide)
• [x] Calculate symmetric OD-matrix for all settlements
• [x] To calculate functional areas for each regional settlement, calculate traveltimes to 1km gridpoints with a max traveltime
• [x] ...

Deliverables:

• [x] D02.01 Defined subnational units for projections.
• [x] D02.02 Implemented models to project subnational built-up land, population and/or built-up area per capita change.

[MaartenHilferink]

TASK-03: Explore and implement refined population and built-up land projection mechanisms in the mapping

This task entails assisting in the exploration and implementation of: 1) different methods to disaggregate population projections through population dynamics that are allowed to vary either by various degrees of urbanisation, or are general for entire territories without discerning the local level of urbanisation; and 2) methods to map continuous rather than binomial built-up land projections, including levers to adjust scenarios in terms of densification and expansion, or centrifugal and centripetal forces. Both the setup of the exploration, the implications for calibration, and the final implementation are to be agreed with the Project Officer.

To do:

• [x] Clean up 2UP model
• [x] Implement regional density dynamics proposed by the GHSL team.
• [x] Implement a 5 km allocation buffer (compacted domain; static)
• [ ] Implement local trend component. If there was development, it is likely that development will follow. ?
• [x] Implement built-up allocation.
• [x] Implement population allocation.

Deliverables:

• [x] D03.01 Overview and conceptual models of population and built-up mapping.
• [x] D03.02 Conclusions from exploration of selected variants (including results from iterative calibration and validation).
• [ ] D03.03 Implemented local population change and built-up change modules.

[MaartenHilferink]

TASK-04: Provide the final platform in which all elements are integrated, including training, documentation, and early technical support

This task considers the final integration of the development elements into a broadly usable platform, and should include documentation and early technical support, as well as training for potentially interested users.

To do:

• [ ] Write documentation

Deliverables:

• [ ] D04.01 Fully adapted platform
• [ ] D04.02 Training