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ObjectVision / 2BURP

Towards Build Urban and Rural Projections
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Total population in new built up seems to be uncorrelated to total builtup in region #49

Open jipclaassens opened 4 months ago

jipclaassens commented 4 months ago 
/Analysis/Future/Allocate_Population/Y2030/NewState/Diagnostics/Relevant_ClaimRegions
cjacobscrisioni commented 4 months ago

See below image (functional area results for NL, Nicaragua, Nigeria). Trend in total population allocated to newly built areas seems somewhat insensitive to total built-up. This may be a consequence of too much built-up concentration or an issue with the population allocation. To be monitored.

image

cjacobscrisioni commented 4 months ago

First improvements should focus on improving built-up allocation

cjacobscrisioni commented 1 month ago

Result for Africa. The more new built-up area we allocate, the more of the total population we add to these areas.

image

However we sometimes allocate the total population pool to new built-up areas.

image

cjacobscrisioni commented 1 month ago

.. In the vast majority of African countries we add at least 15% of new built-up only in the first 10 years, in many even >30%. The Teller/Noemer approach for limiting population in new built-up works, but the cut-off is a bit hard. And functional areas with 100% in new built-up are set up to bleed out their existing urban areas.

Open for discussion: can we balance the population pool? Either by, say, maximally 75% of the total pool, or a more intricate approach based on suitabilities?