Further `scenario` subclasses

[l-emele]

Description of the issue

We currently have the following types of scenarios in the OEO: climate scenario, economic scenario, emission scenario, energy scenario. There are further important types of scenarios in the domain, these include:

• baseline scenario
• reference scenario
• current policies scenario
• with measures scenario

However, some of these are probably synonyms of each other. Or there exists some kind of subclass relations.

Ideas of solution

First try of a structure and some first definitions

• baseline scenario: A baseline scenario is a scenario that...
• reference scenario: A reference scenario is a scenario that is the reference of a scenario comparison.
• current policies scenario: A current policies scenario (alternative: with measures scenario) is a scenario that projects the effects of policies and measures that have been adopted and implemented.

Workflow checklist

• [ ] I discussed the issue with someone else than me before working on a solution
• [ ] I already read the latest version of the workflow for this repository
• [ ] The goal of this ontology is clear to me

I am aware that

• [ ] every entry in the ontology should have a definition
• [ ] classes should arise from concepts rather than from words

[l-emele]

Additionally with existing measures scenario (WEM), with additional measures scenario (WAM), and without measures scenario (WOM).

[han-f]

Here some ideas from my side, for WOM, WEM and WAM. We may want to base this on information from legislation?

• Without measures scenario: A without measures scenario (WOM) is a scenario that excludes all policies and measures which are planned, adopted or implemented.
• With existing measures scenario: A with existing measures scenario (WEM) is a scenario that includes policies and measures that have been adopted and implemented.
• With additional measures scenario: A with additional measures scenario (WAM) is a scenario that includes policies and measures which have been adopted and implemented to mitigate climate change or meet energy objectives, as well as policies and measures which are planned for that purpose

Source: Article 2: Derived from "projections with ..." under: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32018R1999&from=EN#d1e968-1-1

Note: the definition for WEM does not explicitly call out climate and energy policies - would we maybe want to add this due to the domain of discourse of the OEO? Or if we want to keep it more general we could delete the part after adopted in the definition of WAM?

Background information: Legislation also has (specific) definitions on policies and measures:

• policies and measures means all instruments which contribute to meeting the objectives of the integrated national energy and climate plans and/or to implement commitments under points (a) and (b) of Article 4(2) of the UNFCCC, which may include those that do not have the limitation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or change in the energy system as a primary objective

• existing policies and measures means implemented policies and measures and adopted policies and measures

• implemented policies and measures means policies and measures for which one or more of the following applies at the date

• adopted policies and measures means policies and measures for which an official government decision has been made by the date of submission of the integrated national energy and climate plan or of the integrated national energy and climate progress report and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation

• planned policies and measures means options that are under discussion and that have a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented after the date of submission of the integrated national energy and climate plan or of the integrated national energy and climate progress report

[stap-m]

Can scenarios entail several "types", e.g. be as well an energy scenario and an emission scenario and a WAM scenario? Then the subclass structure might not serve, but rather something like roles or qualities?

[l-emele]

We definitely need here some kind of multi-hierarchical structure. A natural language statement like Scenario ABC has a reference scenario role definitely makes sense. Additionally, one and the same scenario can have different roles in different contexts. For example, the Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenarios hat we at Oeko often model are both energy scenarios and emission scenarios and serve at the same time as with measure scenarios and as reference scenarios.

We probably have to work here a lot with equivalent classes and probably also have to convert existing scenario subclasses into equivalent classes. For example: 'energy scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and relation_to_be_specified some 'energy system'.

[stap-m]

For example: 'energy scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and relation_to_be_specified some 'energy system'.

Nice. is about or a subrelation seem suitable. 'energy scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'energy system' 'economic scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'economy' ? 'emission scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'emission' --> specify as CO2 / ghg emission? For climate scenario I didn't find a good axiom. Maybe introduce climate system / climate impact ...?

[stap-m]

We have policy, policy instrument and transformative measure[^1] implemented. In the background information above, "policies and measures" etc. are not clearly distinct from each other. @han-f is it possible to map them somehow with our existing structure? This would make equivalence much easier.

[^1]: A policy is a specifically dependent continuant that is a deliberate system of principles, rules and guidelines, adopted by an organisation to guide decision making with respect to particular situations and implemented to achieve stated goals. A policy instrument is a specifically dependent continuant that is an action by the government that is intended to promote the adoption of a (transformative) measure. A transformative measure is a process that is an activity that has a direct impact on a specific variable in question.

[l-emele]

Nice. is about or a subrelation seem suitable. 'energy scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'energy system'

I agree.

'emission scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'emission' --> specify as CO2 / ghg emission?

GHG emission seems right, that encompasses also CO2 emission. EDIT: If we go the route of implementing these as equivalent classes, then we can have three classes, which are then subclasses of each other:

• 'emission scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'emission'
• 'greenhouse gas emission scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'greenhouse gas emission'
• 'CO2 emission scenario' EquivalentTo: scenario and 'is about' some 'CO2 emission'

For climate scenario I didn't find a good axiom. Maybe introduce climate system / climate impact ...?

climate system seems right. I'll open an issue for that.

[stap-m]

From a trilateral meeting with @han-f and @l-emele

• policies and measures as alternative terms for as well policy instrument and transformative measure, maybe also for policy
• In the proposed subclasses WEM, WOM, WAM replace "policies and measures" with policy instruments and transformative measures. Add elucidation/definition source
• policy scenario as midlayer scenario class
• baseline scenario as alternative lable for WOM, WEM
• reference scneario as scenario with a reference role
• axiomatise existing scenario subclasses

[stap-m]

Summary and proposals for missing concepts:

• I propose policy scenario: A scenario in which certain policy instruments or transformative measures and their impacts are assumed.
  • equivalentTo scenario and 'is about' some ('policy instruments' or 'transformative measures')
  • Without measures scenario: A without measures scenario (WOM) is a policy scenario that excludes all policy instruments and transformative measures which are planned, adopted or implemented.
    • alternative term: WOM scenario, baseline scenario
  • With existing measures scenario: A with existing measures scenario (WEM) is a policy scenario that includes policy instruments and transformative measures that have been adopted and implemented.
    • alternative term: WEM scenario, baseline scenario
  • With additional measures scenario: A with additional measures scenario (WAM) is a policy scenario that includes policy instruments and transformative measures which have been adopted and implemented to mitigate climate change or meet energy objectives, as well as policy instruments and transformative measures which are planned for that purpose
    • alternative term: WAM scenario
  • Definition source for WOM, WEM, WAM: Article 2: Derived from "projections with ..." under: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32018R1999&from=EN#d1e968-1-1
• Proposal for reference scenario A reference scenario is a scenario that is used as a reference, e.g. in a scenario comparison. It has the reference role.
  • reference role: A role of a scenario, that indicates a benchmark, e.g. in a comparison.
  • EquivalentTo: scenario and 'has role' some 'reference role'
  • For the other existing scenario subclasses, we have already proposals above.

[stap-m]

Any comments @l-emele @han-f ?

[l-emele]

I general I agree to your proposals, but I have some small modifications:

• policy scenario: A scenario in which certain policy instruments or transformative measures and their impacts are ~assumed~ assessed. The impact of the PaMs is not necessarily an assumption but can also be a result.
• reference role: A role of ~a scenario~ information content entity, that indicates a benchmark, e.g. in a comparison. I think we can safely generalise this role to information content entity as not only scenario but also other information content entities can have this role, e.g. the input and output datasets related to a reference scenario.

[stap-m]

I could implement, so that we can include it into the OEKG quickly.

[l-emele]

Yes, imho ready for implementation. :rocket:

[stap-m]

Again, a lot of shifting towards oeo-shared 😅

[stap-m]

Still open:

1. economic scenario: scenario and 'is about' some economy? Economy is a subclass of system. We might add economic system as alternative label, then this would fit the equivalence pattern of climate scenario and energy scenario
2. target driven scenario: scenario and is about some 'target description'?
3. explorative scenario: in contrast to target driven scenarion there are no goals defined, but measures. The definition of policy scenario is might be similar to a possible definition of explorative scenario. Any proposals how to distinguish @l-emele @han-f ?

[stap-m]

In #1553 a sufficiency scenario is proposed. scenario and 'is about' some sufficiency would be near by, once sufficiency is in the OEO.

[stap-m]

From todays dev meeting (# 63):

• economic scenario --> as proposed above
• sufficiency scenario --> @l-emele discusses this with sufficiency expert collegues
• target driven scenario --> as proposed above

explorative scenario: same as policy scenario?

in contrast to target driven scenarion there are no goals defined, but measures. The definition of policy scenario might be similar to a possible definition of explorative scenario. Any proposals how to distinguish?

--> @han-f what do you say?

[han-f]

• economic scenario: I think it reads ok as proposed and would also opt to useis about some economic system(s), as economic system transports more the idea that there several things at work in the structur. Ecomomy may sound too much as "one whole". Can we use the alternative label explicitly? I think if possible may want to use the plural, as an economic scenario may include more than one economy / economic system, for example if you have a model that covers more than one country, or is is mandatory to use singular?
• target driven scenario: would it be sufficient to say is about some target(s)? I don't think it really is about the description of the target(s), more about modelling the reaching of target(s). Also here the question about the plurals.
• explorative scenario: I do not think we need to distinguish between explorative scenario and policy scenario because one could argue they are the same. Some "things" are introduced and the projected outcomes are explored. If at all, I think an explorative scenario may be a parent class to a policy scenario because the "thing" introduced in this case would be policies.

[stap-m]

@han-f thanks for commenting. The plurals are implicit in "some" in the axiom. We can use the plural in the definition explitictly. target is not part of oeo directly, only target description.

[stap-m]

Any updates from the sufficiency experts @l-emele ?

[l-emele]

Yes, she provided the following definition which is the result of the EnSu project explicitly dealing with sufficiency: Sufficiency is a strategy for reducing, in absolute terms, the consumption and production of end-use products and services through changes in social practices in order to comply with environmental sustainability while ensuring an adequate social foundation for all people.

She also provided an additional elucidation of their definition: This definition consists of three characteristics that are present in most definitions of sufficiency: 1) sufficiency is understood as a strategy for achieving mainly (but not solely) environmental goals of sustainability, 2) sufficiency pursues sustainability goals by absolute reductions in consumption and production and 3) sufficiency implies a focus on social innovation to change social practices and individual behaviour.

This definition will be published shortly in a paper. We might reference this if we stay with the essence of their definition.

[han-f]

@han-f thanks for commenting. The plurals are implicit in "some" in the axiom. We can use the plural in the definition explitictly. target is not part of oeo directly, only target description.

understood (and thought so but wanted to make sure). I think it would be good to add target to the oeo. Or would the spelling out of a specific target, e.g. 68% mean the 68% is the target description?

[stap-m]

understood (and thought so but wanted to make sure). I think it would be good to add target to the oeo. Or would the spelling out of a specific target, e.g. 68% mean the 68% is the target description?

The target description[^1] would always refer to a specific other entity, e.g. is is about RE-share or emission reduction. 68% emission reduction could be a target, but also something else, e.g. an achievement. I tried to recap the discussion in #28 but it is not too helpful. If you are in favour of a separate class target, we should discuss this probably in a separate issue.

[^1]: A target description is an information content entity that contains statements about a desired future state of a system that a person or organisation commits to in a legally binding way.

[l-emele]

Proposal for sufficiency scenario: A sufficiency scenario is a scenario that includes sufficiency.?