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ARPA-E PERFORM Forecasts Documentation
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Day-ahead forecast lead time and horizon #6

Closed xy3134 closed 3 years ago

xy3134 commented 3 years ago

Hello,

The day-ahead forecasts for load has 12-hour-ahead lead time, while the day-ahead forecasts for wind and solar (site-level) have 36-hour-ahead lead time. Is there a reason, or I misunderstood the meaning of lead time?

Also, the wind and solar forecasts have only 24-hour horizon, while in the README, it says that day-head forecasts will have a 48 hour horizon. Are the forecasts with the 48-hour horizon not published yet?

Thanks, Xinshuo Yang

fzhang-WZ commented 3 years ago

Hi Xinshuo,

The lead time should be 12-hour-ahead lead time. The issue time for both DA wind and solar needs to be +1 day. The files will be updated with the correct issue time. Thanks for pointing this out.

We only have time series with the length of 8760 for both wind and solar ensembles due to the way the ensembles were originally processed. That means currently the wind and solar forecasts only have 24-hour horizon. We will publish the 48-hour horizon forecasts once we finish processing the 2nd-day DA ensembles. Sorry for the confusion.

Best, Flora

MRossol commented 3 years ago

@xy3134 Day-ahead forecast lead time and horizon: lead time has been corrected. It will take longer time to extend the horizon.

xy3134 commented 3 years ago

@fzhang-WZ @MRossol Thanks for the update.

MRossol commented 3 years ago

@xy3134 , this should be fixed in today data update