PSLmodels / OG-UK

An overlapping generations model to simulate fiscal policy the United Kingdom.
https://pslmodels.github.io/OG-UK
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Solving the steady-state #43

Closed nikhilwoodruff closed 2 years ago

nikhilwoodruff commented 2 years ago

Filing this to keep track of my attempts to move the best working parametrisation of OG-UK from the default OG-Core model, to the full UK model with fitted tax functions.

Version: 0.0.1

@jdebacker @rickecon @jpycroft @MaxGhenis any ideas on "middle-ground" points between 3 and 4? Or I could first reforming the microsim model to make the tax functions effectively flat or otherwise simplified?

jdebacker commented 2 years ago

@nikhilwoodruff for a middle ground, I'd recommend fitting the linear tax rates first (before the GS or DEP functions that allow for progressive rates).

nikhilwoodruff commented 2 years ago

Thanks @jdebacker - updated with the success! I'll see how the TPI looks.

nikhilwoodruff commented 2 years ago

OK, some results and a few questions:

  1. Here's what I get when just running SS functions, for the default reform which raises the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 30%. How does this compare with what we'd expect?
Variable Baseline Reform % Change (or pp diff)
GDP ($\bar{Y}$) 0.689195 0.678031 -1.61978
Consumption ($\bar{C}$) 0.600977 0.606212 0.871164
Capital Stock ($\bar{K}$) 2.3755 2.37737 0.0785319
Labor ($\bar{L}$) 0.353969 0.345041 -2.52229
Real interest rate ($\bar{r}$) 0.0488827 0.0472211 -3.39929
Wage rate ($\bar{w}$) 1.26558 1.2773 0.925861
  1. The TPI takes a while to run: if there are issues, are there ways we can diagnose/test them just from SS runs?
nikhilwoodruff commented 2 years ago

Now runs without issue after #50.