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PSLmodels / taxdata

The TaxData project prepares microdata for use with the Tax-Calculator microsimulation project.
http://pslmodels.github.io/taxdata/
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Update for new CBO budget outlook #363

Open MattHJensen opened 4 years ago

MattHJensen commented 4 years ago

CBO updated their 10-year budget outlook on Sep 2.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

andersonfrailey commented 4 years ago

Updates are running now. Will open a PR once they're done.

andersonfrailey commented 4 years ago

Seems like they took capital gains realizations out of the revenue projections again so there's nothing to update here. Hopefully they will at least still include them in the January updates. If not, we'll need to find a work around.

donboyd5 commented 4 years ago

Not sure exactly what you're looking for but CBO has capital gain or loss projections in row 15 of the 3.Individual Income Tax Details tab of this spreadsheet.

andersonfrailey commented 4 years ago

Thanks @donboyd5! This is probably our best alternative if we need to make the switch.

MattHJensen commented 4 years ago

@andersonfrailey, sorry for falling behind here, do you mind clarifying what you mean by "make the switch?" Are the numbers Don linked to a different concept / source from what has been used in TaxData?

donboyd5 commented 4 years ago

My thoughts on that question: image

It would, of course, be easy to do a temporary fix in which you splice CBO's current projected growth rates of capital gains and losses onto the last-available historical values of capital gains realizations (starting with the 2017 value and applying the growth rates from there) and revert to the capital gains realizations approach when CBO next publishes those values, presumably in January 2021.