Microsimulation results dramatically too low

PolicyEngine / policyengine-us

The PolicyEngine US Python package contains a rules engine of the US tax-benefit system, and microdata generation for microsimulation analysis.

https://policyengine.org/us

GNU Affero General Public License v3.0

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Microsimulation results dramatically too low #3311

Closed MaxGhenis closed 9 months ago

MaxGhenis commented 9 months ago

Earlier today I noticed that all budgetary impacts are way too low, e.g. ~$100k for restoring the ARPA CTC. I've been restoring old API versions and still get the issue, so I think it's a microdata release issue.

This is not an issue on the UK side; e.g., the Autumn Budget budgetary impact matches our blog post

MaxGhenis commented 9 months ago

As shown in this notebook, this results from recent changes to policyengine-core. We should pin core to <2.10.0 until they're fixed.

MaxGhenis commented 9 months ago

Verified: notebook and web app now estimate $21 billion impact for the fully refundable CTC