Priesemann-Group / covid19_inference

Bayesian python toolbox for inference and forecast of the spread of the Coronavirus
GNU General Public License v3.0
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doubt about the posterior distributions #56

Closed Quan-kas closed 3 years ago

Quan-kas commented 3 years ago

Hello good morning, I am writing a report of your model which is great, but I have a question about the posterior distributions of the parameters, is it the same as the a priori? Is there a way to know exactly the posterior distributions? Would it be helpful to me, please in which part of the model code do you multiply the a priori distribution with the maximum likelihood function?

I appreciate your help

jdehning commented 3 years ago

The posterior is not the same as the prior. The posterior is calculated with pm.sample(...). The prior is multiplied with the likelihood internally in the PyMC3 package

Quan-kas commented 3 years ago

perfect thank you very much, I will investigate the pymc3 package and see the pm.sample function,

Thank you