Unplausible evolution of urban central heat balance

PyPSA / pypsa-ariadne

High resolution, sector-coupled model of the German Energy System

https://ariadneprojekt.de/en/model-documentation-pypsa/

MIT License

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Unplausible evolution of urban central heat balance #114

Open cpschau opened 5 months ago

cpschau commented 5 months ago

The urban central heat balance is currently containing some unplausible elements:

[ ] High investments in gas boilers until 2030 (likely to be fixed after solving https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-ariadne/issues/74)
[ ] Declining shares of air-sourced heat pumps
[x] Too much waste heat from Electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch
[ ] Remaining importance of CHP plants

lindnemi commented 4 months ago

Waste heat share seems to be down to a reasonable number now

lindnemi commented 4 months ago

latest 3H run (Balanced scenario)

lindnemi commented 3 months ago

latest 3H run (Balanced scenario)

amos-schledorn commented 3 months ago

I've started looking into this in a little more detail:

Importance of CHP units seems to be mainly waste-fired CHP generation with CC.
Resistive heaters seem to only run when heat pumps run at fill capacity (i.e. no artificial curtailment).
So, the large share of resistive heating might come down to much lower investment costs compared to heat pumps (63 EUR/kWh vs. 906 EUR/kWh) - this is in line with the DEA techn. catalogue. Merging https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur/pull/1175 might increase heat pump COPs and shift this balance towards them.

lindnemi commented 2 months ago

Latest 3H run (Focus Electricity scenario)

lindnemi commented 2 months ago

Much higher share of heat pumps, still a relatively large share of e-boilers and CHPs. Are we satisfied with these results?

cpschau commented 2 months ago

I am still confused about the large amounts of heat stored in hot water storage systems that are not utilized on the supply side. Why doesn't the model use heat vents for curtailing excess heat?

amos-schledorn commented 2 months ago

The unused stored heat seems odd to me, too. As does the declining power-to-heat utilisation (of installed capacity) in favour of CHP generation in 2040. I guess this might come down to biomass CCS, @lindnemi ?

lindnemi commented 1 month ago

amos-schledorn commented 1 month ago

unused heat storage is actually losses. This is because water tanks are actually PTES, which have higher standing losses. I've checked for two examples and standing losses match the "unused heat". Issue submitted to technology-data repo: https://github.com/PyPSA/technology-data/issues/143
decreasing heat pump utilisation in favour of CHP generation is waste CHP-CC in particular (see table below). I'm guessing that the model does this for CO2 sequestration.

lindnemi commented 3 weeks ago