too highly negative emissions in 2045 in industry (harmonise with FORECAST related to biomass, i.e. reduce biomass usage?)
too much coal in 2045 (esp. Industry)
Following possibilities to harmonize FORECAST with PyPSA-Ariadne:
Take the production volumes from FORECAST
This would leave the industry sector from PyPSA-Eur mostly untouched. The same sector ratios (energy demands per produced unit) would be used to calculate final energy demand in the industrial sector.
Problem: only small deviations between the scenarios from FORECAST since the production [Mt/yr] is expected to stay the same except for the Easy Ride and Low Demand scenarios.
Calculate FORECAST specific sector ratios for each year
The workflow in PyPSA-Eur would stay mostly the same, however the files industry_sector_ratios_{planning_horizon}.csv would change depending on the FORECAST results.
Alternative a)
Stay very closely to FORECAST and specify even the source of gas (biomass vs. natural gas) and liquids (biomass vs. petroleum vs synfuels).
Alternative b)
Give PyPSA-Ariadne more options to cover the demand by leaving it up to the model where e.g. the natural gas is coming from.
The sectors do not match entirely between the JRC IDEES and the FORECAST model.
PyPSA-Eur sector ratios
FORECAST
Electric arc
Steel
DRI + Electric arc
Steel
Integrated steelworks
Steel
HVC
HVC (mechanical recycling)
HVC (chemical recycling)
Ammonia
Chemicals
Chlorine
Chemicals
Methanol
Chemicals
Other chemicals
Chemicals
Pharmaceutical products etc.
Cement
Non-Metallic Minerals
Ceramics & other NMM
Non-Metallic Minerals
Glass production
Non-Metallic Minerals
Pulp production
Pulp and Paper
Paper production
Pulp and Paper
Printing and media reproduction
Pulp and Paper
Food, beverages and tobacco
Food and Tobacco
Alumina production
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium - primary production
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium - secondary production
Non-Ferrous Metals
Other non-ferrous metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
Transport Equipment
Machinery Equipment
Textiles and leather
Wood and wood products
Other Industrial Sectors
[ ] FORECAST would need to report more variables
Taking Demands from FORECAST
Most invasive way is taking the final energy demand Final Energy|Industry|Carrier from FORECAST and setting it as a demand in PyPSA-Ariadne. We would outsource the modelling of the industrial sector completely and would allow PyPSA-Ariadne only how to supply hydrogen, gas etc.
[ ] What does FORECAST mean by Final Energy|Industry|Heat
Following possibilities to harmonize FORECAST with PyPSA-Ariadne:
Take the production volumes from FORECAST
This would leave the industry sector from PyPSA-Eur mostly untouched. The same sector ratios (energy demands per produced unit) would be used to calculate final energy demand in the industrial sector. Problem: only small deviations between the scenarios from FORECAST since the production [Mt/yr] is expected to stay the same except for the Easy Ride and Low Demand scenarios.
Calculate FORECAST specific sector ratios for each year
The workflow in PyPSA-Eur would stay mostly the same, however the files
industry_sector_ratios_{planning_horizon}.csvwould change depending on the FORECAST results.Alternative a)
Stay very closely to FORECAST and specify even the source of gas (biomass vs. natural gas) and liquids (biomass vs. petroleum vs synfuels).
Alternative b)
Give PyPSA-Ariadne more options to cover the demand by leaving it up to the model where e.g. the natural gas is coming from. The sectors do not match entirely between the JRC IDEES and the FORECAST model.
Taking Demands from FORECAST
Most invasive way is taking the final energy demand
Final Energy|Industry|Carrierfrom FORECAST and setting it as a demand in PyPSA-Ariadne. We would outsource the modelling of the industrial sector completely and would allow PyPSA-Ariadne only how to supply hydrogen, gas etc.Final Energy|Industry|Heat