For the multiple region examples that we studied for the paper, create a forward simulation figure for 3 different values of the epsilon parameter of the imported cases to show the 3 possible scenarios:
[ ] 1. Explosive growth in incidence numbers,
[ ] 2. "Normal" growth in incidence numbers,
[ ] 3. Quenched epidemic.
The plot should include:
[x] a bar plot for the known number of imported cases
[x] for each of the epsilon behavioural trace:
[x] strong line for mean behaviour over 10000 different simulations
[x] shades area for uncertainty margins.
How to do this:
[x] Assume epsilon=0, and using the data available infer a possible Rt profile for the epidemic
[x] Using this realistic Rt profile, do 10000 forward simulations for 3 different epsilon values
[x] 1. epsilon close to 0 showing what kind of happened
[x] 2. epsilon really small - shows what drastic measures would have caused
[x] 3. epsilon really large - shows what tossing track of super-spreaders and lax measures would have caused.
For the multiple region examples that we studied for the paper, create a forward simulation figure for 3 different values of the epsilon parameter of the imported cases to show the 3 possible scenarios:
The plot should include:
How to do this: