SABS-R3-Epidemiology / branchpro

Using branching processes to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number of a disease with imported cases
BSD 3-Clause "New" or "Revised" License
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Change calculation of the posterior of R_t with multiple serial interval samples #169

Closed rccreswell closed 3 years ago

rccreswell commented 3 years ago

When multiple serial intervals are provided, the posterior of R_t should be calculated using the approximation:

p(Rt|data) = 1/N sum(i=1 to N) p(R_t|data, w^(i))

where w^(i) are the samples of the serial interval. Posterior means and percentiles should be calculated based on this density and not on sampling from the gamma distribution.