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SciML / EasyModelAnalysis.jl

High level functions for analyzing the output of simulations
MIT License
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Optimal intervention function #17

Closed ChrisRackauckas closed 1 year ago

ChrisRackauckas commented 1 year ago
  1. Assume a consistent policy of social distancing/masking will be implemented, resulting in a 50% decrease from baseline transmission. Assume that we want to minimize the time that the policy is in place, and once it has been put in place and then ended, it can't be re-implemented. Looking forward from “today’s” date of Dec. 28, 2021, what are the optimal start and end dates for this policy, to keep projections below the hospitalization threshold over the entire 3-month period? How many fewer hospitalizations and cases does this policy result in?
ChrisRackauckas commented 1 year ago
  1. Now assume that instead of NPIs, the Board wants to focus all their resources on an aggressive vaccination campaign to increase the fraction of the total population that is vaccinated. What is the minimum intervention with vaccinations required in order for this intervention to have the same impact on cases and hospitalizations, as your optimal answer from question 3? Depending on the model you use, this may be represented as an increase in total vaccinated population, or increase in daily vaccination rate (% of eligible people vaccinated each day), or some other representation.
ChrisRackauckas commented 1 year ago

optimal_threshold_intervention(prob,p1,p2,x,threshold)

Way to do it: do a 3 time solve. Solve to policy_start, then remake with lower parameter value, solve to policy_end, remake, solve to t end. Evaluate policy_end - policy_start. Global constraint that threshold is not hit, in terms of time above the threshold so that it's continuous.