peer review for ShaotongLi-Max

[tx77777]

Summary This paper explores the prediction of cherry blossom bloom timing in Japan using a dual-model approach. The first model examines temperature's effect on bloom duration, while the second estimates temperature as a function of latitude, day, and month. Combining historical and modern datasets, the study highlights the interplay between climatic and geographic factors influencing bloom dynamics.

Strong Positive Points

1. Comprehensive Dual-Model Framework: The two-model approach effectively captures the relationship between temperature, geography, and bloom duration.
2. Thorough Data Cleaning and Variable Selection: The inclusion of both historical and modern datasets enhances the robustness of the analysis.
3. Excellent Visualization: Figures such as temperature versus bloom dynamics and geographic maps of temperature distributions effectively communicate key findings.
4. Insightful Interpretation: The findings provide both theoretical and practical implications, particularly for climate science and cultural events.
5. Strong Theoretical Foundation: Cites relevant studies to establish the significance of temperature and geographic variables on phenological patterns.

Critical Improvements Needed

1. Abstract:
   • Lacks detail on specific findings and numerical insights.
   • Omits mention of key variables like latitude and month.
2. Introduction:
   • The research objectives are too broad; refine them to align with model-specific aims.
   • Limited discussion on the gap this study aims to address compared to past literature.
3. Model Justification:
   • More rationale is needed for excluding longitude and other variables.
   • The paper lacks a discussion of alternative modeling techniques.
4. Results Interpretation:
   • Discussion on ecological or societal implications could be expanded, particularly concerning tourism and conservation.
5. Survey Methodology:
   • Proposed survey design is not integrated into the main findings; this could strengthen the conclusions.

Suggestions for Improvement

1. Enhance the Abstract*:
   • Include key findings, such as specific RMSE values or the improvement over baseline models.
2. Expand the Introduction:
   • Provide a detailed literature review and explicitly outline how this study addresses existing gaps.
3. Detail Model Sections:
   • Explain why the chosen variables are optimal and discuss limitations of excluding others.
4. Interpret Results in Practical Context:
   • Discuss how the results could be used for policy, tourism, or conservation strategies.
5. Refine Survey Design:
   • Integrate the survey findings or their potential implications into the paper's main discussion.

Evaluation

• Data Citation: 1/1
• Code Documentation: 1/1
• Abstract: 2/4
  • Needs refinement with specific results and methodology details.
• Introduction: 3/4
  • Broadly informative but lacking in focus on specific objectives and gaps.
• Estimand: 1/1
• Measurement: 3/4
  • Comprehensive but excludes certain critical variables like precipitation.
• Model: 7/10
  • Strong modeling but requires more justification for excluded predictors.
• Results: 7/10
  • Well-documented but lacks discussion on broader implications.
• Discussion: 7/10
  • Provides insights but should explore additional environmental and societal impacts.
• Prose Quality: 5/6
• Visuals and Captions: 4/4
• Reproducibility: 4/4
• Miscellaneous: 2/4
  • No enhancements like a detailed model card but includes thorough appendices.

Estimated Overall Mark: 90/112

Additional Comments:
This paper provides valuable insights into cherry blossom bloom dynamics using a robust dual-model framework. To improve, focus on integrating broader implications into the discussion, refining the abstract, and justifying modeling choices. Additionally, aligning the survey section with the main findings would further enhance its relevance.

[ShaotongLi-Max]

Thanks for your peer view! I will enhance the model justification and other parts in the next few days :D