SolarArbiter / solarforecastarbiter-core

Core data gathering, validation, processing, and reporting package for the Solar Forecast Arbiter
https://solarforecastarbiter-core.readthedocs.io
MIT License
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Check that CDFs are non-decreasing - continuous_ranked_probability_score #811

Open mattmotoki opened 1 year ago

mattmotoki commented 1 year ago

I think it is important to check that the predicted CDFs are non-decreasing. Without this requirement, the continuous_ranked_probability_score can produce incorrect results.

>>> import numpy as np
>>> from solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic import continuous_ranked_probability_score
>>> continuous_ranked_probability_score(np.array([0.5]), np.array([[0.5, -1e6, 0.5]]), np.array([[0, 0.5, 1]]))
-9950.004974999989