Bonus roll chances

[iNF1N3]

I've been checking ExRT bonus roll tracker and the amount of loot that people get compared to T14 (T15 now) is approx 12-13% lower, I took 3 raids in T14, 2 10 man and 1 25 man (32 coins 14 items 43.75%, 29 coins 13 items 44.82%, 65 coins 28 items 43.07%) and compared it to T15 where I randomly selected 4 raids, 2 10 man and 2 25man (34 coins 10 items 29.41%, 32 coins 9 items 28.12%, 67 coins 22 items 32.83%, 63 coins 20 items 31.74%) and even went back to MB1 for a 25 man raid (78 coins 31 items 39.74%). I cant factor in prejuiced rolls going into the raid, but many people report that they usualy go +4, +5 and +6 in this tier, which was a rarity during T14 and MB1. Sadly theres no infromation from retail MoP what the numbers were, but if we assume that T14 and MB1 bonus roll chances were properly scripted, ignoring the pre juicing from old tiers on MB1, the numbers suggest that the chances on Mogu Runes are not right. The devs can probably check all the numbers and see if my data is correct and if it in fact is an issue.

[query-wow]

You cannot compare both realms because the juicing made the outcome semi predictable. How many of those coins that you factored in from mb1 are juiced? Fact is, if you remove the elder charms you used to juice you'd end up with the same stats as you do in mb2. I played on mb1 and never juiced a single rune, I'd get loot after 4 or 5 coins and sometimes I'd speed 2 weeks without a single item

[iNF1N3]

I didnt factor any juice, same as I didnt for MB2, but the descrepancy between T14 and T15 is the one that is puzzling, I just put in MB1 as a bonus and wanted to know how far apart it was to MB2 in case I miss remembered the amount of bonus loot we recieved, but I honestly think a mistake was made when scripting individual BLPs per tier and would love for a dev to take a look, because its not just happening to a few unlucky people, its realm wide that people got that reduced drops compared to what it was in T14.

[iNF1N3]

You cannot compare both realms because the juicing made the outcome semi predictable. How many of those coins that you factored in from mb1 are juiced? Fact is, if you remove the elder charms you used to juice you'd end up with the same stats as you do in mb2. I played on mb1 and never juiced a single rune, I'd get loot after 4 or 5 coins and sometimes I'd speed 2 weeks without a single item.

But thats the thing, if you remove the juice the values still stay the same, all she did was to seperate the coin tiers, but we still end up with lower chance for items, I went into the run yesterday on +2 and left at +4, a friend came in at +4 and left at +6, I honestly dont think I ever went to +6 on MB1, maybe 2-3 times to +5, mostly got an item on 3rd roll, if not the 4th was like 99%, and this trend continued into MB2 T14, but now in T15 it seems like the old +3 became the new +5. I dont have access to all the data, but the devs should have, so you could check if Im just going crazy or the values changed.

[ythealien]

The only live-sourced info on bonus roll chances is that rolling 20 in a row and failing is impossible, based on a GM comment on the now-deleted WoW forums (source: Just Trust Me Bro). If it were impossible to fail five or ten times in a row, the GM would have said that instead, and also it would have been fairly obvious (because no one would ever have failed five or ten times in a row, much less gotten close to 20, and so no one would have asked this question).

This also tracks with the design implementation of bonus rolls on live - while the since-patched-out juicing strategy DID work on live, the scaling increased bonus roll odds were low enough you couldn't just dip into T14 and gas your shit up reliably. You would succeed too often because the base T14 loot chance was too high and you gained such a low bonus roll chance increase that you would have to fail too many times to guess it was juiced past 50% or whatever. (source: I was there, Gandalf, 3000 years ago)

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1359866-So-Coins

OP of this thread has failed 9 times and it isn't even that notable to him. A couple replies claim to have failed "all three rolls since Siege released", 9, and 12 times respectively. Of course you cannot trust players' self-reported bonus roll chances (often, they'll just omit having won something bad or that they already had) but still. No one is replying saying "this is impossible, you always win by five or six coins" obviously, right?

Anyway the point is bonus roll scaling BLP on here is about twice as strong as live, probably.

[iNF1N3]

Still doesnt explain the sudden dropoff since T14, and the chances that the whole playerbase suddenly got unlucky with RNG is not probable, but would be nice if we got some clarification on how it works, but I dont belive people went up to 15, maybe they did multiple different coins or were doing stuff like brawlers arena which resets coins.

[query-wow]

First of, brawler's doesn't reset coins. I tested it myself and whomever came up with that idea is basically basing himself on a add-on that supposedly gave him a wrong server side event. Secondly, we do have the stats for the blp of the entire server and all of this stuff is logged and monitored. You can't backup your claim of everyone being unlucky with just your own stats. You need a much larger dataset for that. And just like @ythealien mentioned it is possible to have 9 failed rolls, so the only thing that currently differs is the fact that you cannot juice the rolls.