Open waleedayoub opened 4 months ago
bigdatamonkey
commented
4 months ago @waleedayoub For the 3rd claim, as it is not new, and the Hasbara accounts used to spread such misinformation about the numbers, we have a separate ticket that discusses each #40 #45
bigdatamonkey
commented
4 months ago [under update]
Updated as of 28.05.2024: Additional details have been added after collecting data since October 7th, from UNHOCA, GMO, and MoH. Including various articles. Adding the plots for Women and Children
~Regarding the false claims, I suggest we address them systematically as follows (note that the fact-check report will be more detailed in the complete draft):~
- First Claim: Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data - Conclusion: 🔴 Confirmed False - Analysis:
The continuous cycle of false claims and skepticism about reported death numbers in Gaza is not new. However, a significant development occurred on April 9, when the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) published a flash brief titled "Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data."
This article was widely circulated and propagated by various social media accounts linked to ongoing Hasbara efforts, which attempt to deny the genocide in Gaza and justify the killing of civilians by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). These war crimes have been documented and raised as plausible genocide by the highest-level international organizations, as detailed in South Africa's submission to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and more recently in the request by International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC for arrest warrants in the situation in the State of Palestine against the Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense.
These false claims have been used to mislead the public regarding the reported fatalities by undermining the revision of numbers reported by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in Gaza, dated between May 6 and 8. Social media accounts and the FDD have tried to misinform the public about these revisions, suggesting that, based on the updates from UNOCHA, the numbers reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health were exaggerated, false, and unreliable. This pattern of claims is consistent in FDD's publications, which often exhibit intentional bias and skepticism about the reported figures. Most of these publications are based on flawed analyses, many of which have been proven wrong by various open-source investigators.
To set the record straight and address the lies mentioned by the FDD, we decided to scrutinize the recent false claims one by one in our analysis, using publicly announced data since October 7 from UNOCHA impact reports, the Gaza Government Media Office (GMO) via their Telegram channel, and the Ministry of Health in Gaza (MoH) via Telegram and their frequent detailed health emergency reports.
First and foremost, the cumulative number of fatalities has not decreased. Despite the ongoing verification processes by MoH health information unit, the numbers have consistently shown a rise, despite the catastrofic health infrastructure situation and the targeting of most health facilities as reported by the MoH. UNOCHA routinely reports the cumulative fatality numbers in Gaza, they stated in their reports that they rely on data collected from the MoH, (GMO), and the Palestinian Civil Defence (PCD). UNOCHA reports such as "Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel - Reported Impact" and "Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update" and after our revision, consistently show a continual rise in fatalities. This directly contradicts the false claims of reduction in the commulitive numbers..
Source: Data analysis using R, data and the code will be published on github.
Further analysis of the cumulative number of fatalities, based on figures reported by the MoH, GMO, and UNOCHA, reveals a consistent pattern, as UNOCHA follows the numbers reported by the GMO throughout the entire period before May 9! However, UNOCHA after this date, relyed on the MoH breakdown based on the identified number of 24,686. Instead of the previously used estimated breakdown by GMO based on the total comulitive of 35,091. Which explain how the numbers of children and women went from around 23K to around 13K. a reduction of about 10K which has been always raised by MoH emergency reports as a gap of verification due to challenges related to collect a complete information ( ID, DOB, DOD and sex), due to the backout between the central health information system and the hospitals system in the northern and central part of Gaza strip. However, those 10K has been registered by the hospitals as dead, stored in each hospital system, awaiting until been transfered and merged to the central health system for validation and verification.
Some flawed analyses have taken partial samples of the data to intentionally suggest that the reported figures are manipulated to show a consistent increase. These analyses relied on showing a linear pattern in the reported cumulative figures based on selectively biased samples, resulting in flawed and misleading use of statistics.
To address this, we conducted a comprehensive analysis implementing a linearity check against the reported cumulative figures since October 7, using data from the three primary agencies. A known method for checking linearity in statistics is by using the residual plot. If the data has a linear pattern, the residuals will appear as random points surrounding a straight line.
The plots clearly show the failure of the linearity model, and the residual plots reveal a clear non-linear pattern in the reported figures. This indicates that no intentional manipulation has been made to the reported totals, contrary to the false claims.
On May 3rd, the MoH published a comprehensive report by the health emergency operations centre within the ministry, titled "Health Sector Emergency Report after 210 Days of Aggression," in Arabic on their official Telegram channel. This report meticulously detailed the breakdown of fatality numbers and explained the term "identified" figures which was reported along with the total comulitive figuer since October 8th, meaning of identified based on MoH is a complete records validated by medical staff using the ministry's health records or reported by a family member with full identification details, including identity number, name, gender, date of birth, and date of death.
MoH has always used to report the breakdown based on the identified numbers, along with reporting the total comultiive of both identified and un-indenfitied numbers, since October 8th. The GMO on the other hand, and due to blackout of communication during the war was reporting the the comultive number they get from the MoH and based on crediable sources to report their breakdown of 14K children and 9K women. A number that can be true with potential increase, once the MoH verify all the information. (More details about the children and women breakdown can be found in the section below related to the second and third false claims)
In the most recent Flash Update, published on May 13, the following was reported by UNOCHA that contains both breakdown based on the comulitive and identified numbers:
"Between the afternoons of 9 and 13 May, according to the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Gaza, 187 Palestinians were killed and 323 were injured. Between 7 October 2023 and 12 May 2024, at least 35,091 Palestinians were killed and 78,827 were injured in Gaza, according to MoH in Gaza. Moreover, according to the Gaza Government Media Office (GMO) and Palestinian Civil Defense, there are some 10,000 people reportedly missing or under rubble in Gaza. GMO also reports that overall fatality figures purportedly include more than 14,000 children and 9,000 women. The MoH documents the full identification details of casualties and has recently published the breakdown of 24,686 out of 34,622 fatalities for whom full details have been collected by MoH as of 30 April 2024; **according to MoH, these reportedly include 7,797 children, 4,959 women, 1,924 elderly, and 10,006 men. The documentation process is ongoing by the MoH.***"
As per UNOCHA's regular updates, the cumulative number of casualties continued to increase from April until the most recent reports in May. Screenshots of these reports can serve as evidence to corroborate this upward trend. While the FDF attempted to convey a conflicting narrative, it is crucial to emphasize that their analysis appears to contain biases, misinformation, and false claims that may serve as propaganda and a denial of the ongoing crisis, which some stakeholders may characterize as an act of genocide. By intentionally ignoring the blackout period, the variation of source and categorization of the reported figures. In addition to the ongoing validation and identification work done by MoH in Gaza. It is the responsibility of those disseminating information to uphold the truth and prevent the spread of falsehoods which can undermine the severity of the humanitarian situation and impede efforts aimed at resolving it.
- Detailed context about the Ministry of Health in Gaza:
The Ministry of Health in Gaza has faced continuous skeptical attempts to discredit it, primarily based on the fact that it is under the goverment of Hamas in Gaza. However, this portrayal is not entirely accurate. Here is why:
Professional Oversight: The Ministry of Health in Gaza operates with professional oversight and employs medical professionals dedicated to providing healthcare services. The staff includes doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers who adhere to medical ethics and standards.
Collaboration with International Organizations: The Ministry collaborates with various international organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). These collaborations aim to ensure that healthcare services are delivered according to international standards.
Public Health Services: The Ministry provides essential public health services to the population of Gaza, including vaccination programs, maternal and child health services, and emergency medical care, regardless of political affiliations.
By understanding these points, it becomes clear that the Ministry of Health in Gaza functions as a professional health institution, and its efforts to deliver healthcare should be evaluated based on its performance and collaboration with international health bodies, rather than solely on its administrative affiliation.
Thus, we will address the most frequently asked questions that have been used as a basis for skeptical discredit on social media and in some Western media.
- Is the Ministry of Health in Gaza fully influnced and controlled by Hamas management?
The Ministry of Health in Gaza operates with professional oversight and employs dedicated medical professionals. It collaborates with international organizations like the WHO and ICRC to ensure healthcare services meet international standards. Independent bodies such as UNOCHA also cross-verify health data and casualty figures.
AP By ISABEL DEBRE publised a detailed analysis What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll? Updated 12:14 AM GMT+2, November 7, 2023. The report clearly state that MoH in Gaza is not completley controlled and under the influnce of Hamas, "Hamas, as Gaza’s ruling authority, exerts control over the Health Ministry. But it’s different than political and security agencies that Hamas runs."
Since 2007, after the elections in Gaza, Hamas has taken leadership of the administrative and governmental aspects of Gaza as the leading party. It began hiring and recruiting public service personnel from Gaza to fill the gap left by the absence of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the Gaza Strip. This clash between Palestinian parties, Fatah (leading the current government in the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank) and Hamas in Gaza, has resulted in a continuous blockade between the two. Salaries for public service employees have been managed by the PA in the West Bank.
The Palestinian Authority, which controlled Gaza before Hamas overran the area in 2007, retains power over health and education services in Gaza, though it’s based in the occupied West Bank. The ministry is a mix of recent Hamas hires and older civil servants affiliated with the secular nationalist Fatah party, officials say.
The Fatah-dominated authority that administers Palestinian cities in the Israeli-occupied West Bank has its own health ministry in Ramallah, which still provides medical equipment to Gaza, pays Health Ministry salaries and handles patient transfers from the blockaded enclave to Israeli hospitals.
Health Minister Mai al-Kaila in Ramallah oversees the parallel ministries, which receive the same data from hospitals. Her deputy is based in Gaza.
The Ramallah ministry said it trusts casualty figures from partners in Gaza, and it takes longer to publish figures because it tries to confirm numbers with its own Gaza staff.
Hamas tightly controls access to information and runs the government media office that offers details on Israeli airstrikes. But employees of the Health Ministry insist Hamas doesn’t dictate casualty figures.
“Hamas is one of the factions. Some of us are aligned with Fatah, some are independent,” said Ahmed al-Kahlot, director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza. “More than anything, we are medical professionals.”"
- Is Gaza Ministry of Health a crediable orgnization to rely on?
This is one of the core questions, that similar accounts that follow the trends of gencoide denail are spreading, it is a valid question, but the intent behind it to link the professional work of the health system to Hamas as the governing body in Gaza, is clear and we can see through it inentional trying to raise questions about the numbers crediablity.
As publised by the AP on their detailed article that hisotry shows from before October 7, that the figuers reported by the MoH in Gaza are
"In all cases the U.N.'s counts have largely been consistent with the Gaza Health Ministry’s, with small discrepancies.
— 2008 war: The ministry reported 1,440 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 1,385.
— 2014 war: The ministry reported 2,310 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 2,251.
— 2021 war: The ministry reported 260 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 256."
Our analysis to the figuers show consistant and replieable information published in the frequent health emergency reports, detailing the calcualtion methoeds, the data collection, also the assumpition made by the ministry stfff.
Also scientifice researchers has looked into the published numbers back on December, they published clear artticles of sicentifical methodlogies that concluded that "No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health"
"The Gaza MoH has historically reported accurate mortality data, with discrepancies between MoH reporting and independent United Nations analyses ranging from 1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts. A comparison between the Gaza MoH and Israeli Foreign Ministry mortality figures for the 2014 war yielded an 8·0% discrepancy" .... Debre I How does Gaza's Ministry of Health calculate the death toll?. Date: Oct 26, 2023
Not only that, the Time article published by By Les Roberts March 15, 2024 1:36 PM EDT stated a clear validation by various independent analysis of the MoH numbers and figuers.
**- Secondly, it is important to clarify that the number of female casualties was not halved upon subsequent review.
Initially, prior to May 9th, UNOCHA estimated the number of women casualties was approximately 9,500, which represented about 27% of the cumulative fatalities; this estimate was based on reports from the Government Media Office and Civil Defence. At that time, the MoH was unable to furnish precise figures.
However, when the MoH later published exact figures, UNOCHA updated their May 9th report to reflect the 24,686 identified casualties. An accurate count of 4,960 female casualties was established after a careful review of the published MoH PDF files, with the age group for women classified as from 19 to 59 years old. Additionally, a separate category for older adults aged 60 years and above was created, which includes both men and women. Upon reviewing the data in the elderly category, it was found that the total number of female casualties aged 19 and above is a cumulative 5,740—comprising 780 elderly women plus 4,960 other women. This revised figure accounts for approximately 23% of the identified casualties, which closely aligns with previous estimates reported by the Government Media Office and Civil Defence. The variance between the initial and revised estimates is under 5%, a figure that can be attributed to the MoH's ongoing process to verify and properly identify casualties.
FDF, however, has misconstrued this analysis by falsely asserting that the numbers of female casualties were cut in half and by claiming that the figures were deliberately exaggerated. Their unfounded allegations seem designed to provoke controversy over the cumulative number of casualties and to deny the severity of the ongoing catastrophic situation.
" UNOCHA reports have used the government media office estimated numbers and percentages to calculate the number of children and women before the exact identified figure published by MoH. Also, the estimation percent was an educated one, based on previously reported numbers, which can be validated when the total number of casualties was something around 20,000 or less! [ We need to include some data from that time to calculate the percentages as been used in UNOCHA reports before May 9th.]
Specifically, the Government Media Office in Gaza estimated that around 14,500 children and 9,560 women were among the fatalities, which UNOCHA cited while waiting for the confirmed figures from the MoH.
UNOCHA's Flash Update #71 also mentioned that "About 70 per cent of those killed are said to be women and children" based on the Media Office estimates at the time. So UNOCHA relied on the preliminary estimated percentages of children and women casualties provided by the Government Media Office as an educated guess, until the MoH published the exact identified disaggregated figures later on.
Citations: [1] https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-71"
waleedayoub
commented
4 months ago @waleedayoub For the 3rd claim, as it is not new, and the Hasbara accounts used to spread such misinformation about the numbers, we have a separate ticket that discusses each #40 #45
While the claim itself isn't new, whatever response we craft should explicitly point out that the other two claims being made (namely that i. total fatalities have halved and that ii. women and children fatalities have halved) are exclusive to UNOCHA's own approach to reporting.
Put another way, UNOCHA's decisions to report the data how it has should be clearly decoupled from the source data itself (i.e. the MoH in Gaza)
waleedayoub
commented
4 months ago Some data gathering and analysis from the MoH telegram channel that mentions proportions and ratios:
waleedayoub
commented
4 months ago NYT has provided perhaps the most succinct coverage of what's happened in recent days here: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/14/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah?unlocked_article_code=1.sE0.S3eW.chFcivd60wkW&smid=url-share
This is probably the most useful part of the entire article:
bigdatamonkey
commented
4 months ago The MoH methodology of collecting and registering the martyr's statistics as published on their first report dated as 26October2023
English Translation:
Methodology:
1- Once martyrs bodies arrives to the emergency unit in the governmental hospital, admission information is recorded and stored in the hospital digital information system, Such data as the ID number and other personal data (once identified) along with the time of arrival to the hospital. 2 Each hospital records the death (martyrdom) of the injured who stayed in the hospital.
bigdatamonkey
commented
4 months ago In a statement released earlier in December, the Ministry of Health (MoH) revealed that due to the disruption of communication with the northern part of the Gaza Strip and the main hospitals there, they had integrated approximately 4,293 individuals from official trusted media channels who were not fully registered in the MoH-ICT central database. This resulted in a total of 18,608 individuals, of which 14,315 were identified.
bigdatamonkey
commented
3 months ago The first appearance of the 9000 Women in the UNOCHA impact reports was in the report published on 8 March, where the figure was reported with a source of UN-Women. In the next report, dated 11 March, the source changed to MoH. However, after reviewing the telegram channel and emergency reports published by MoH on 13 March, the number of women was found to be 5115. While the figure reported on 04 March by MoH was 5085.
Briefly describe the claim or statement that needs fact-checking:
There are two immediate claims that need addressing (and possibly a 3rd related claim):
Description:
Various outlets are picking this story up. Originally this was mostly Zionist / Hasbara sources like Visegraad and Fox News but increasingly mainstream western media outlets: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-women-children-death-toll-1.7203167 https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/13/gaza-ministry-revises-figures-for-women-and-children-killed
Context:
The issue was motivated by UNOCHA's Day 217 report dated May 10, 2024: https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-217
In this report, a discrepancy was introduced in how fatality numbers were being reported: May 6, 2024:
May 8, 2024:
Evidence:
See evidence in the Context.
Additional Notes:
Additional Validation: