As of today the model on the economist.com website estimates the win probability of candidate biden / president trump at 96 % / 4 % respectively. At the same time the graph on the estimation of delegates shows that the 95 % confidence interval for both candidates goes across the line of 270 Delegates. From my understanding of statistics and the US Election system this seems to conflict:
As of today the model on the economist.com website estimates the win probability of candidate biden / president trump at 96 % / 4 % respectively. At the same time the graph on the estimation of delegates shows that the 95 % confidence interval for both candidates goes across the line of 270 Delegates. From my understanding of statistics and the US Election system this seems to conflict: