Number of live births stop increasing linearly around 2050

[ValentinaCambiano]

Using the core program at 27/09/2023 with file Zim_parameters_08_a up to 2072 we found that n_birth = s_birth &sf 4 stops increasing linearly around 2055.

s_births is not linked to the pop growth (i.e. inc_Cat) but to the pregnancies.

However, the increase for n_alive and therefore the number of women that could give birth is also slowing down. After a meeting on 2/10/2023 Vale looked at n_alive_1524m, n _alive_1524w and there is a drop in 2054.

inc_cat=1 for countries starting in 1984 needs to be changed. Vale

[andrew-phillips-1]

Thanks Vale – do you want to propose a change in inc values ? We will need to change more than just inc1 and they need to sum to 1.

Andrew

[ValentinaCambiano]

Sure!