USEPA / FrEDI

FrEDI estimates annual physical and economic impacts from climate change to the U.S., through the 21st century
https://usepa.github.io/FrEDI
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Labor Socioeconomic Scaling #126

Closed emcduffie closed 8 months ago

emcduffie commented 9 months ago

FrEDI labor impacts are not changing with changes in population inputs. When run with default temperature and GDP profiles, FrEDI outputs the same results for both annual_impacts and physical_impacts when run with two different population inputs.

Sample code: `load('sysdata.rda')

RUN POPULATION VARIATIONS ------------------------------------------------

Define 2x and .5x population pathways (Otherwise use the default scenarios)

pop_path_double <- rDataList[['pop_default']] %>% mutate(reg_pop=2reg_pop) pop_path_default <- rDataList[['pop_default']] pop_path_half <- rDataList[['pop_default']] %>% mutate(reg_pop=.5reg_pop)

Get results for our three paths of interest

double_pop <- run_fredi(inputsList=list(tempInput = NULL, slrInput = NULL, gdpInput = NULL, popInput = pop_path_double), aggLevels =c('national','modelaverage'), sectorList = 'Labor') %>% filter(region=='National Total')

default_pop <- run_fredi(inputsList=list(tempInput = NULL, slrInput = NULL, gdpInput = NULL, popInput = pop_path_default), aggLevels =c('national', 'modelaverage'), sectorList = 'Labor') %>% filter(region=='National Total')

half_pop <- run_fredi(inputsList=list(tempInput = NULL, slrInput = NULL, gdpInput = NULL, popInput = pop_path_half), aggLevels =c('national','modelaverage'), sectorList = 'Labor') %>% filter(region=='National Total')

CHECK OUT WHAT CHANGES ---------------------------------------------------

Do labor damages change in any period?

all(double_pop$annual_damages==default_pop$annual_damages) #Outputs "TRUE" all(half_pop$annual_damages==default_pop$annual_damages) #Outputs "TRUE"`

tonygard-indecon commented 8 months ago

@emcduffie Which branch did you use?

emcduffie commented 8 months ago

@tonygard-indecon - I was on the @main branch, I believe using the @FrEDI_2300 tagged release.

knoiva-indecon commented 8 months ago

@emcduffie : @heaston-indecon and I did some tests and tracking and we are thinking this behavior is a consequence of the nature of the scenarios you chose and our methods for calculating economic scalars. So, a special case, but not a bug. Hugh and I are writing up some notes and will explain further

emcduffie commented 8 months ago

Additional tests confirmed that FrEDI Labor sector calculations are working as expected. No coding changes required.

Summary: Monetization is conducted by calculating wage rates scaled proportionally to the ratio of GDP per capita in each year relative to GDP per capita in 2010. Relative to the default scenario, if population and/or GDP are scaled by the same factor across the entire timeseries, the ratio of GDP per capita each year relative to that in 2010 does not change relative to that same ratio in the default scenario.