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UofUEpiBio / covid19-abm

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New model looking at racial and ethnic disparities #1

Open gvegayon opened 1 year ago

gvegayon commented 1 year ago

Here is part of the email with the com

Emma/Damon will work on coding a similar model to the one described in this paper: https://elifesciences.org/articles/66601

Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics | Life where S, E, I, R refer to the number of people in susceptible, latently infected, infectious, and recovered compartments, respectively. Given a mean incubation period and mean serial interval of 5 days as suggested by empirical studies (Nishiura et al., 2020; Lauer et al., 2020), we set the mean latent period 1 / r to be 3 days to allow for pre-symptomatic transmission and the mean infectious ... elifesciences.org

The idea will be to repurpose and extend that model to address new research questions. Ideas for these extended uses include:

  • Calibration of the model to alternate sets of data that describe COVID outcomes that disproportionately affected a certain group or groups
  • Explore the effect of assuming that general transmission mitigation efforts had different effectiveness for different groups (this was not one of the possible mechanisms explored in the publication)
  • Use the model to explore the effects of interventions designed to reduce inequities, especially for vaccination

Emma/Damon will code the model and extensions with a differential equation (DE) numerical solver and other DE analysis techniques similar to the publication.

Additional idea (to be discussed with George): in parallel with the DE solver, we could perhaps code an agent-based model that initially uses the same assumptions as the DE model but simulates transmissions stochastically among the agents. This would give us a stochastic version to play with, and would then be extendable to adding additional features that are difficult to represent in a DE model, such as adding household structure to the population.

gvegayon commented 1 year ago

Here is the permlink for the paper's code https://github.com/kevincma/covid19-race-ethnicity-model/blob/75574621317a599e9058236f62bb34de63120e99/covid19-race-ethnicity-models-notebook.ipynb