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VFCI / vfciBusinessCycles

Research project exploring the relationship between financial conditions and business cycles.
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Estimate external VFCI using BCA consumption and output variables #78

Closed matdehaven closed 21 hours ago

matdehaven commented 2 days ago

It seems the external vs. internal VFCIs are more similar when we use the exact same definition for consumption in each of the estimations.

Comparing the time series of consumption there are definitely differences that while not large could affect our estimates.

matdehaven commented 21 hours ago

@fernando-duarte

Report Comparing external VFCI Estimations

Allow using output or consumption (from the BCA VAR data) for estimating the external VFCI.

Very small difference in the time series. 'output' is almost exactly the same as 'gdpc1' for the VFCI estimate. A slight gap between using 'consumption' or 'pcecc96' series.

This was a surprise to me. I know that when I estimate the internal VFCI from the VAR using output it ends up being similar to the external VFCI using 'gdpc1', but that is not the case when estimating an internal VFCI with consumption compared to the external VFCI using 'pcecc96'. Need to figure out why this is the case.