macterra
commented
5 years ago The proposal here is to introduce credence as a standard measure of the following highly correlated concepts:
- weight of evidence
- degree of belief
- probability
- plausibility
- likelihood
- confidence
The credence varies in value between -127 and +127 and is interpreted as bits of evidence *4, i.e. each level is 0.25 bits. From bits it is easy to calculate the other metrics:
- probability for
- probability against
- odds for
- odds against
- evidence in decibans (10 * log10 odds, Turing's and I. J. Good's original unit)
- nats (natural log odds)
Credence type as a signed byte to store bits of evidence: 1 bit for sign (0=negative, 1=positive), fixed point 5.2 bits for value
Chart from cred worksheet