Land-use estimates from LCAs

[ZoologyDave]

@hommedesmuffins, I think you said we can get region-specific LCA estimates? Is that possible? If so, would you be able to do this? I can then use them in the land use script

[ZoologyDave]

Finally got round to this and we've got issues with the distribution of data: e.g. nothing for Africa for meat. Take the global average for these regions? Or just stick to the global average for everything?

[hommedesmuffins]

I'd either take the global average or assign data from a different region that you think is representative.

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From: ZoologyDave notifications@github.com Sent: Wednesday, June 3, 2020 6:10 PM To: ZoologyDave/WildlifeTradeNutrition Cc: Michael Clark; Assign Subject: Re: [ZoologyDave/WildlifeTradeNutrition] Land-use estimates from LCAs (#1)

Finally got round to this and we've got issues with the distribution of data: e.g. nothing for Africa for meat. Take the global average for these regions? Or just stick to the global average for everything?

- You are receiving this because you were assigned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHubhttps://github.com/ZoologyDave/WildlifeTradeNutrition/issues/1#issuecomment-638332203, or unsubscribehttps://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AICQHXA5AAVIUJG2ZGRZG6TRUZ7XJANCNFSM4NN6DPGQ.

[ZoologyDave]

🤙

[ZoologyDave]

FYI: Taking global averages for missing countries—there's a few weird ones in there, but I don't want to be trying to justify more complex things.

[ZoologyDave]

Annnnd, new estimates up. Much, much higher than before (e.g. ~30,000 km for Nigeria vs. 8000 before). This is because the LCA values are waaaaay higher in the regional data set. For missing regions I used the median, estimates will be even higher if I used the mean. @hommedesmuffins where does the difference in the data come from?

[hommedesmuffins]

What difference are you referring to?

In short, global estimates are skewed towards high-income (and lower land use) production systems because of sampling bias (i.e. where people have $$$ to conduct LCAs), mean will be skewed below median because of a few very high-impact producers.

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From: ZoologyDave notifications@github.com Sent: Wednesday, June 3, 2020 7:05 PM To: ZoologyDave/WildlifeTradeNutrition Cc: Michael Clark; Mention Subject: Re: [ZoologyDave/WildlifeTradeNutrition] Land-use estimates from LCAs (#1)

Annnnd, new estimates up. Much, much higher than before (e.g. ~30,000 km for Nigeria vs. 8000 before). This is because the LCA values are waaaaay higher in the regional data set. For missing regions I used the median, estimates will be even higher if I used the mean. @hommedesmuffinshttps://github.com/hommedesmuffins where does the difference in the data come from?

[LandGrab_v2]https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/33705532/83671689-080a6880-a5cd-11ea-9296-9a90efca4650.png

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[ZoologyDave]

Ah sorry, yeah that makes total sense. Brain not working at all today

[ZoologyDave]

OK, finally finished. New code, figures, and summary data uploaded. Some summary figures to drop into the piece:

• Total of 242,611 km2 of new ag land; 193,783 (79.9%) pasture
• This is approx. the size of the UK
• Data from 83 countries, representing 55.4% of the world's population.