theagora
commented
4 years ago 【按需貼報】 On-demand News
| Repo | URL |
|---|---|
| agorahub/news0 | https://agorahub.github.io/news0/ |
Closed theagora closed 4 years ago
theagora
commented
4 years ago | Repo | URL |
|---|---|
| agorahub/news0 | https://agorahub.github.io/news0/ |
demosisto
commented
4 years ago | Name | URL |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 (r/nCoV) | https://www.reddit.com/r/ncov |
| COVID-19 (r/COVID19) | https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 |
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 香港区议会通过动议：邓炳强率警赴武汉抗疫 【阿波罗新闻网 2020-02-12 讯】
武汉疫情迅猛扩散。继香港元朗区议会促请警队“一哥”邓炳强率警队到武汉抗疫后，11日，西贡区议会亦一致通过动议，要求警队往武汉支援抗疫。有区议员表示，警队应北上抗疫，发挥“忠诚勇毅”的精神。
demosisto
commented
4 years ago The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated 7 Feb, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, View ORCID ProfileRuian Ke
Abstract The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
theagora
commented
4 years ago | 站名 | 鏈接 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 武汉·人间 | www.wuhancrisis.com | 2020.2.3 ~ 微博超話 肺炎患者求助 |
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID-19 in Wuhan 13 Feb, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Toshihisa Tomie
Abstract The present status of COVID-19 is analyzed and the end of the disease is forecasted. The peak of the epidemic is different in three regions, Wuhan, Hubei province except Wuhan, and mainland China except Hubei. In two regions except Wuhan, the peak of the epidemic passed ten days ago. If the trend until February 11 does not change, the disease may end by the end of February. In Wuhan, the epidemic reached a peak but the reported number of newly infected patients fluctuates largely. We need to know the reason for the big fluctuation to forecast the end of the disease.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago | Name | URL | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| WeChatSCOPE | https://wechatscope.jmsc.hku.hk | 2018.7.6 ~ |
| 分流備份站點 | 下架文章列表及搜索 | 遞交公衆號 | 2018.7.6 ~ |
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study 31 Jan, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Adam J Kucharski, Timothy W Russell, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, CMMID nCoV working group, John Edmunds, View ORCID ProfileSebastian Funk, Rosalind M Eggo
Abstract Background: An outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to 46,997 confirmed cases as of 13th February 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Methods: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas. Findings: We estimated that the median daily reproduction number, Rt , declined from 2.35 (95% CI: 1.15-4.77) one week before travel restrictions were introduced on 23rd January to 1.05 (95% CI: 0.413-2.39) one week after. Based on our estimates of Rt,we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential as Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population. Interpretation: Our results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan pre-control, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago theagora
commented
4 years ago COVID-19 Global Cases
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China 17 Feb, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Haoyang Sun, Borame Lee Dickens, Mark Chen, Alex Richard Cook, Hannah Eleanor Clapham
Abstract Background The emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China in early December 2019 has caused widespread transmission within the country, with over 1,000 deaths reported to date. Other countries have since reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) importation from China, with some experiencing local transmission and even case importation from countries outside China. We aim to estimate the number of cases imported from Wuhan to each country or territory outside mainland China, and with these estimates assess the risk of onward local transmission and the relative potential of case importation between countries outside China. Methods We used the reported number of cases imported from Wuhan and flight data to generate an uncertainty distribution for the estimated number of imported cases from Wuhan to each location outside mainland China. This uncertainty was propagated to quantify the local outbreak risk using a branching process model. A COVID-19 introduction index was derived for each pair of donor and recipient countries, accounting for the local outbreak risk in the donor country and the between-country connectivity. Results We identified 13 countries or territories outside mainland China that may have under-detected COVID-19 importation from Wuhan, such as Thailand and Indonesia. In addition, 16 countries had a local outbreak risk estimate exceeding 50%, including four outside Asia. The COVID-19 introduction index highlights potential locations outside mainland China from which cases may be imported to each recipient country. Conclusions As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread globally, more epicentres may emerge outside China. Hence, it is important for countries to remain alert for the possibilities of viral introduction from other countries outside China, even before local transmission in a source country becomes known.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Fractal kinetics of COVID-19 pandemic 17 Feb, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Robert M. Ziff, Anna L. Ziff
Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to grow rapidly in China and is spreading in other parts of the world. The classic epidemiological approach in studying this growth is to quantify a reproduction number and infection time, and this is the approach followed by many studies on the epidemiology of this disease. However, this assumption leads to exponential growth, and while the growth rate is high, it is not following exponential behavior. One approach that is being used is to simply keep adjusting the reproduction number to match the dynamics. Other approaches use rate equations such as the SEIR and logistical models. Here we show that the current growth closely follows power-law kinetics, indicative of an underlying fractal or small-world network of connections between susceptible and infected individuals. Positive deviations from this growth law might indicate either a failure of the current containment efforts while negative deviations might indicate the beginnings of the end of the pandemic. We cannot predict the ultimate extent of the pandemic but can get an estimate of the growth of the disease.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea 27 Feb, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Eunha Shim, Amna Tariq, Wongyeong Choi, Yiseul Lee, Gerardo Chowell
Abstract Since the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran 8 Mar, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Shayesterh R. Ferdosi, Sylvia K. Ofori, Yiseul Lee, Amna Tariq, Gerardo Chowell
Abstract We computed reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran using two different methods. We estimated R0 at 3.6 (95% CI, 3.2, 4.2) (generalized growth model) and at 3.58 (95% CI, 1.29, 8.46) (estimated epidemic doubling time of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.05, 1.44) days) respectively. Immediate social distancing measures are recommended.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Direct RNA sequencing and early evolution of SARS-CoV-2 5 Mar, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print George Taiaroa, Daniel Rawlinson, Leo Featherstone, Miranda Pitt, Leon Caly, Julian Druce, Damian Purcell, Leigh Harty, Thomas Tran, Jason Roberts, Mike Catton, Deborah Williamson, Lachlan Coin, Sebastian Duchene
Abstract The rapid sharing of sequence information as seen throughout the current SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, represents an inflection point for genomic epidemiology. Here we describe aspects of coronavirus evolutionary genetics revealed from these data, and provide the first direct RNA sequence of SARS-CoV-2, detailing coronaviral subgenome-length mRNA architecture.
theagora
commented
4 years ago Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China March 1, 2020
NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites have detected significant decreases in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over China. There is evidence that the change is at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus. ...
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 武漢肺炎-香港民間資訊 https://wars.vote4.hk/
COVID-19 Global Cases
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 東京都COVID-19対策 | English | 中文版 | Github
COVID-19 Global Cases
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 台灣COVID-19資料站-皮丘版 | English | Github
COVID-19 Global Cases
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 一山還比一山高 鬧市無市靜悄悄 栽樹無木有共田 田中無物多逍遙 四張桌子腿鋸掉
猜五個字！
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 为什么说中国的数字完全不可信
5 Apr, 2020 | QmfXAwxPPCqyD7pSvkhhsGBmz1gZvX1rDdfgjfeDji3454
Mischievous Physicsit (@MeBeingADonut) from Matters
我作为一个物理博士生，对于疫病传播的发展习惯利用模型，去研究现在发展到哪一步了，什么地方应该怎么做，做没做好，导致的后果是什么。这就需要数据库大量的公开数据判断来更正模型，细微调整参数。我所依赖于的模型原型，就是可以在任何疫病传播中必定会讨论到的SEIR模型，比如这个：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022247X14007586#tl0010 。有时也会用Gamma分布去估算验证模型的符合程度。
theagora
commented
4 years ago 一山還比一山高 鬧市無市靜悄悄 栽樹無木有共田 田中無物多逍遙 四張桌子腿鋸掉
猜五個字！
theagora
commented
4 years ago 提問：WHO總幹事 譚德塞 的中文原名？幾時改名？你從教皇 方濟各 中文正名又聯想到什麼？
出門戴口罩
一山還比一山高 鬧市無市靜悄悄 栽樹無木有共田 田中無物多逍遙 四張桌子腿鋸掉 猜五個字！
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 阿達諾姆當選世衛總幹事
2017年5月24日 09:05
【Now新聞台】埃塞俄比亞前衛生部長阿達諾姆將接替陳馮富珍出任世界衛生組織新任總幹事，成為世衛史上第一位來自非洲的總幹事。
經過三輪投票，阿達諾姆擊敗另外兩名來自英國和巴基斯坦的候選人，成為自1948年世衛成立以來首位來自非洲地區的總幹事，也是首名本身不是醫生的世衛總幹事。
他會在七月一日正式接替陳馮富珍，開始五年任期，他強調首要工作是盡全力達到環球健康覆蓋的目標。
提問：WHO總幹事 譚德塞 的中文原名？幾時改名？你從教皇 方濟各 中文正名又聯想到什麼？
theagora
commented
4 years ago 蔡英文：強烈抗議被指控發動種族歧視 擬邀譚德塞訪台 2020-04-09 14:12:50 +0800 https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1519780-20200409.htm
世界衛生組織總幹事譚德塞點名批評台灣對他人身攻擊及侮辱，說他是「黑人」甚至作出死亡恐嚇，又指台灣的外交部門亦清楚知道事件。 在台灣，蔡英文總統表示，計劃邀請譚德塞訪問台灣。 蔡英文透過社交網站表示，對於台灣被指控發動種族歧視攻擊的言論，要表達強烈抗議。她說，台灣向來反對任何形式的歧視，台灣長年被排除在國際組織之外，比任何人都知道被歧視和孤立是甚麼滋味。她計劃邀請譚德塞訪問台灣，感受台灣人民如何努力在遭受歧視和孤立之中，堅持走向世界、貢獻國際社會。 蔡英文又說，如果譚德塞能抵擋大陸的壓力，踏上台灣的土地，就能了解到台灣對防疫的努力，並且理解真正受到不公平待遇的，其實是台灣民眾，相信只有台灣的加入，世界衛生組織的拼圖才會完整。
demosisto
commented
4 years ago COVID-19 Global Cases
theagora
commented
4 years ago S'pore is leading the Asia's SmartTech:
demosisto
commented
4 years ago demosisto
commented
4 years ago theagora
commented
4 years ago 患者失味覺嗅覺逾月 專家促世衛列病徵 【明報專訊】2020年4月14日
有部分新冠肺炎患者出現失去味覺或嗅覺情况，英國有部分個案經過1個月症狀仍未完全消失，專家直言難以斷定會否造成永久損害。有專家正向世界衛生組織爭取承認失去嗅覺味覺為新冠肺炎病徵之一。 失去嗅覺或味覺並非世衛新冠肺炎指引中的病徵。英國鼻科學會主席霍普金斯（Claire Hopkins）為其中一名爭取改變指引者，她亦推動把失去嗅覺列入倫敦國王學院 （KCL）所開發、用於追蹤新冠肺炎病徵的程式。KCL在4月1日發表研究，指確診者中失去味覺或嗅覺的比例較發燒高得多。 ……
theagora
commented
4 years ago 美國暫停資助世衛 聯合國：非適當時機 【Now新聞台】2020年4月15日
美國總統特朗普宣布暫停資助世界衛生組織，並就世衛有否失職展開調查，民主黨議員批評決定不合法。聯合國強調，世衛在應對全球疫情上角色重要，現在並非減少資助的適當時機。 新型冠狀病毒在全球奪去數以十萬性命之時，美國總統特朗普宣布，暫停向世界衛生組織支付經費，直至當局完成調查世衛有否失職和隱暪疫情，預料最快60日後有結論。 特朗普又指摘，世衛淪為中國傳聲筒，未有履行向各國分享準確衞生資訊的職責。 事實上，特朗普在一月亦曾公開稱讚中國抗疫透明度。有民主黨議員質疑，特朗普將自己抗疫不力責任推卸給世衛，又指出美國對世衛的資助全部都經過國會審批，特朗普無權扣起。 但共和黨議員普遍支持特朗普，七位共和黨籍議員更致函世衛總幹事譚德塞，要求他交出疫情相關紀錄，以協助國會審視對世衛的捐助。 美國是世衛最大的資助國，去年貢獻逾四億美元，佔世衛預算一成五。美國醫學會和約翰霍普金斯大學都強烈反對白宮，在病毒大流行期間暫停資助世衛，認為此舉無助對抗疫情，而且美國亦需要世衛的資訊來決定抗疫措施。據報，有白宮高級衛生顧問亦極力提出反對。 世衛所屬的聯合國秘書長古特雷斯回應指，目前極需全球團結應對疫情，不是減少世衛資源的時候。據報，他曾透過美國駐聯合國代表承認世衛今次有過失，但不認為現在是適當時機追究責任。
theagora
commented
4 years ago 台灣眾籌於紐時刊廣告反駁譚德塞言論 【Now新聞台】2020年4月15日
台灣民眾以眾籌形式在美國《紐約時報》刊登廣告，回應世衛總幹事譚德塞日前針對台灣的批評。 廣告以黑白為底色，以洞口隱喻世衛在疫情期間因為政治干預導致防疫缺口，但台灣即使長期被孤立於國際組織外，但仍然以實際行動提供幫助。 世衛發言人回應廣告時指，世衛過去數十年一直與台灣的衞生部門展開技術交流，包括以聯絡窗口交換資訊及邀請台灣專家參加會議等；但台灣派駐日內瓦的人員指，世衛以片面資訊誤導外界，以為世衛與台灣有充分交流，對於世衛未呈現事實全貌感到遺失，外交部會進一步說明。
theagora
commented
4 years ago 紐約市改變統計方法 因疫情致死人數增至逾萬 【Now新聞台】2020年4月15日
美國感染新型冠狀病毒人數增至超過61萬，逾26000人死亡，紐約市將未有檢測但相信是死於新冠病毒的人納入統計，令紐約市死亡人數急升至逾萬。總統特朗普改變態度，指何時重啟經濟活動，由各州自行決定。 被形容為目前新型冠狀病毒疫情震央的美國紐約市，周二的死亡人數急增逾3700人，總數超越一萬，原因是當局將從來沒有檢測但相信是病毒致死的人都納入統計，認為更能準確反映疫情。 這個數字並未計入紐約州最新公布的數據，州長科莫表示，雖然新增死亡人數又回升，但入院人數下降，顯示已處於疫情的頂峰，重申不能鬆懈，否則抗疫前功盡廢。 ……
demosisto
commented
4 years ago | Campagin | Link |
|---|---|
| #TaiwanCanHelp #TaiwanIsHelping | https://taiwancanhelp.us |
| Crowdfunding print ads on NYTimes | post by fb.com/tsaiingwen |
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Projection of COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda 2 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Fulgensia Kamugisha Mbabazi
Abstract COVID-19 (Corona Virus) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-COV-2). The virus that was first discovered in China Wuhan Province about 3 months ago (first cases were reported in Wuhan on December 31st, 2019) has spread world wide. The six (6) top countries (excluding China) most affected so far include; USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and Iran. With Italy showing the highest death toll. In Uganda where it was discovered on 19/3/2020 with one (01) case has just in nine (9) days, increased to thirty (30) infected individuals. This model is a wake-up call over the rate at which COVID-19 is likely to spread throughout the country. Thus it is a guide for policymakers and planners to benchmark on for solutions to this deadly virus.
theagora
commented
4 years ago 焦点：预计至少30万非洲人将死于新冠病毒大流行--联合国 Reuters Staff ｜ 2020.04.18
路透约翰内斯堡4月17日 - 联合国非洲经济委员会(UNECA)周五表示，新冠肺炎大流行可能导致至少30万非洲人死亡，2,900万人将陷入极度贫困。该机构呼吁为非洲大陆建立1,000亿美元的安全网。 ...
Projection of COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda 2 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Fulgensia Kamugisha Mbabazi
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19 15 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Vir Bannerjee Bulchandani, Saumya Shivam, Sanjay Moudgalya, S L Sondhi
Abstract A population can be immune to epidemics even if not all of its individual members are immune to the disease, just as long as sufficiently many are immune - this is the traditional notion of herd immunity. In the smartphone era a population can be immune to epidemics even if not a single one of its members is immune to the disease - a notion we propose to call "digital herd immunity", which is similarly an emergent characteristic of the population. This immunity arises because contact-tracing protocols based on smartphone capabilities can lead to highly efficient quarantining of infected population members and thus the extinguishing of nascent epidemics. When the disease characteristics are favorable and smartphone usage is high enough, the population is in this immune phase. As usage decreases there is a novel "contact tracing" phase transition to an epidemic phase. We present and study a simple branching-process model for COVID-19 and show that digital immunity is possible regardless of the proportion of non-symptomatic transmission. We believe this is a promising strategy for dealing with COVID-19 in many countries such as India, whose challenges of scale motivated us to undertake this study in the first place and whose case we discuss briefly.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Pandemic Publishing: Medical journals drastically speed up their publication process for Covid-19 18 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Serge P.J.M. Horbach
Abstract In times of public crises, including the current Covid-19 pandemic, rapid dissemination of relevant scientific knowledge is of paramount importance. The duration of scholarly journals' publication process is one of the main factors hindering quick delivery of new information. While proper editorial assessment and peer review obviously require some time, turnaround times for medical journals can be up to several months, which is undesirable in the era of a crisis. Following initiatives of medical journals and scholarly publishers to accelerate their publication process, this study assesses whether medical journals have indeed managed to speed up their publication process for Covid-19 related articles. It studies the duration of 14 medical journals' publication process both during and prior to the current pandemic. Assessing a total of 669 articles, the study concludes that medical journals have indeed drastically accelerated the publication process for Covid-19 related articles since the outbreak of the pandemic. Compared to articles published in the same journals before the pandemic, turnaround times have decreased on average by 49%. The largest decrease in number of days between submission and publication of articles was due to a decrease in the number of days required for peer review. For articles not related to Covid-19, no acceleration of the publication process is found. While the acceleration of journals' publication process is laudable from the perspective of quick information dissemination, it also raises concerns relating to the quality of the peer review process and the quality of the resulting publications.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago
- India
- Philippines
- Indonesia
- Taiwan
- Singapore
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Comparative ACE2 variation and primate COVID-19 risk 9 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Amanda Dawn Melin, Mareike C Janiak, Frank Marrone, Paramjit S Arora, James Paul High
Abstract The emergence of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which in humans is highly infectious and leads to the potentially fatal disease COVID-19, has caused tens of thousands of deaths and huge global disruption. The viral infection may also represent an existential threat to our closest living relatives, the nonhuman primates, many of which have already been reduced to small and endangered populations. The virus engages the host cell receptor, angiotensin‐converting enzyme‐2 (ACE2), through the receptor binding domain (RBD) on the spike protein. The contact surface of ACE2 displays amino acid residues that are critical for virus recognition, and variations at these critical residues are likely to modulate infection susceptibility across species. While infection studies have shown that rhesus macaques exposed to the virus develop COVID-19-like symptoms, the susceptibility of other nonhuman primates is unknown. Here, we show that all apes, including chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas, and orangutans, and all African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), exhibit the same set of twelve key amino acid residues as human ACE2. Monkeys in the Americas, and some tarsiers, lemurs and lorisoids, differ at significant contact residues, and protein modeling predicts that these differences should greatly reduce the binding affinity of the ACE2 for the virus, hence moderating their susceptibility for infection. Other lemurs are predicted to be closer to catarrhines in their susceptibility. Our study suggests that apes and African and Asian monkeys, as well as some lemurs are all likely to be highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, representing a critical threat to their survival. Urgent actions may be necessary to limit their exposure to humans.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Work-related Covid-19 transmission 8 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Fan-Yun Lan, Chih-Fu Wei, Yu-Tien Hsu, David C Christiani, Stefanos N Kales
Abstract Importance: Our study helps fill the knowledge gap related to work-related transmission in the emerging coronaviral pandemic. Objective: To demonstrate high-risk occupations for early coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) local transmission. Methods: In this observational study, we extracted confirmed Covid-19 cases from governmental investigation reports in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We followed each country/area for 40 days after its first locally transmitted case, and excluded all imported cases. We defined a possible work-related case as a worker with evidence of close contact with another confirmed case due to work, or an unknown contact history but likely to be infected in the working environment (e.g. an airport taxi driver). We calculated the case number for each occupation, and illustrated the temporal distribution of all possible work-related cases and healthcare worker (HCW) cases. The temporal distribution was further defined as early outbreak (the earliest 10 days of the following period) and late outbreak (11th to 40th days of the following period). Results: We identified 103 possible work-related cases (14.9%) among a total of 690 local transmissions. The five occupation groups with the most cases were healthcare workers (HCWs) (22%), drivers and transport workers (18%), services and sales workers (18%), cleaning and domestic workers (9%) and public safety workers (7%). Possible work-related transmission played a substantial role in early outbreak (47.7% of early cases). Occupations at risk varied from early outbreak (predominantly services and sales workers, drivers, construction laborers, and religious professionals) to late outbreak (predominantly HCWs, drivers, cleaning and domestic workers, police officers, and religious professionals). Conclusions: Work-related transmission is considerable in early Covid-19 outbreaks, and the elevated risk of infection was not limited to HCW. Implementing preventive/surveillance strategies for high-risk working populations is warranted.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Improving COVID-19 Testing Efficiency using Guided Agglomerative Sampling 13 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Fayyaz Minhas, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Lawrence Young, Imran Amin, David Snead, Neil Anderson, Asa Ben-Hur, Nasir Rajpoot
Abstract One of the challenges in the current COVID-19 crisis is the time and cost of performing tests especially for large-scale population surveillance. Since, the probability of testing positive in large population studies is expected to be small (<15%), therefore, most of the test outcomes will be negative. Here, we propose the use of agglomerative sampling which can prune out multiple negative cases in a single test by intelligently combining samples from different individuals. The proposed scheme builds on the assumption that samples from the population may not be independent of each other. Our simulation results show that the proposed sampling strategy can significantly increase testing capacity under resource constraints: on average, a saving of ~40% tests can be expected assuming a positive test probability of 10% across the given samples. The proposed scheme can also be used in conjunction with heuristic or Machine Learning guided clustering for improving the efficiency of large-scale testing further. The code for generating the simulation results for this work is available here: https://github.com/foxtrotmike/AS.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning 17 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Sina F. Ardabili, Amir MOSAVI, Pedram Ghamisi, Filip Ferdinand, Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy, Uwe Reuter, Timon Rabczuk, Peter M. Atkinson
Abstract Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Taiwan released AI SARS-CoV-2 classifier with NHIA and CDC
Test the classifier HERE (Username: guest, Password: guest)
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 林鄭認放寬決定非全科學 否認延長限聚阻遊行 【明報專訊】2020年5月6日
......政府後日起將限聚上限變為8人，為何不是其他數字？林太說，有關決定非完全科學（exact science），否則她也不用承受政治風險，14日後或放寬至10人、12人、15人。6月4日是六四事件31周年，6月12日是金鐘反修例衝突1周年，被問延長限聚令是否與這些日子有關，她否認有政治考慮。......
demosisto
commented
4 years ago Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology of COVID-19 26 Apr, 2020 | Pre-Peer Review / Pre-Print Jin Woo Ro, Nathan Allen, Weiwei Ai, Debi Prasad, Partha S. Roop
Abstract COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges globally. Countries have adopted different strategies with varying degrees of success. Epidemiologists are studying the impact of government actions using scenario analysis. However, the interactions between the government policy and the disease dynamics are not formally captured. We, for the first time, formally study the interaction between the disease dynamics, which is modeled as a physical process, and the government policy, which is modeled as the adjoining controller. Our approach enables compositionality, where either the plant or the controller could be replaced by an alternative model. Our work is inspired by the engineering approach for the design of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs). Consequently, we term the new framework Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology (CCPE). We created different classes of controllers and applied these to control the disease in New Zealand and Italy. Our controllers closely follow government decisions based on their published data. We not only reproduce the pandemic progression faithfully in New Zealand and Italy but also show the tradeoffs produced by differing control actions.
demosisto
commented
4 years ago 肺炎疫情： 新冠病毒疫苗研發賽跑 盤點全球領先衝刺臨牀的六名「選手」 2020年 5月 5日
China 3
US 2
- mRNA-1273——美國首個候選新冠疫苗，基於mRNA(信使核糖核酸)技術，與傳統的疫苗研發路徑不同，繞過新冠病毒，直接在信使核糖核酸上做文章。
- INO-4800——基於DNA（脫氧核糖核酸）藥物平台開發的新冠疫苗，是生物製藥公司Inovio在聖地亞哥的實驗室研發的。
UK 1
theagora
commented
4 years ago 有機會「一疫兩苗」 View in Slack
theagora
commented
4 years ago 
林鄭認放寬決定非全科學 否認延長限聚阻遊行 【明報專訊】2020年5月6日
......政府後日起將限聚上限變為8人，為何不是其他數字？林太說，有關決定非完全科學（exact science），否則她也不用承受政治風險，14日後或放寬至10人、12人、15人。6月4日是六四事件31周年，6月12日是金鐘反修例衝突1周年，被問延長限聚令是否與這些日子有關，她否認有政治考慮。......
theagora
commented
4 years ago 美媒掌握報告：武漢P4實驗室去年10月疑發生危險事故 | 報告 【中央社】2020/05/10
（中央社台北10日電）追究武漢肺炎疫源，武漢P4實驗室屢遭外界質疑。根據美國國家廣播公司掌握的報告，2019年10月間武漢P4實驗室及附近的手機收發訊號幾乎一度歸零且交通停擺，疑似發生「危險事故」。 這份登載於網路，封面印著MACE E-PAI COVID-19 ANALYSIS字樣的報告，是由美國國家廣播公司（NBC）調查記者凱普蘭（Adiel Kaplan）提供。 報告指稱，武漢P4實驗室及附近的手機收發訊號，自去年10月11日起大幅銳減。先前最後一次的手機訊號啟動是在10月6日，顯示6日至11日期間可能發生事端，而且是疑似導致實驗室關閉的「危險事故」。 ⋯⋯
貼吧活動：(請查閱 SARS-CoV-2 Timeline by 2020.02.21, by Nathan :cloud: )
✧【外聞貼報】@theagora ✧【微信截圖】@lavieti ✧【學術前哨】medRxiv • bioRxiv • The Lancet
✧【社區討論】 https://agora-republic.slack.com ➡️ #covid-19 | ~邀請鏈接~