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[Turing Data Story] Scottish Parliament Elections #130
Please provide a high level description of the Turing Data Story
There are Scottish Parliament elections upcoming on 6th May: https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx . As part of the Bayesian reading group we are planning to develop a model (as a learning exercise) to predict the outcome of the election given the results of polls, but we are yet to nail down the specifics (could include predicting the winner, number of seats for each party etc.). I'll update this issue as our thinking develops.
Which datasets will you be using in this Turing Data Story?
There is poll data on Wikipedia for the current and previous elections, see here for example : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election . We will also need data on election results (and it would be preferable if we can get the poll data from source).
Additional context
We are currently reading into the Gelman/Economist US election model as a starting point, e.g. see hee: https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model , though there are key differences (e.g. there are more than 2 parties in the Scottish elections and we may not be able to get regional data).
Ethical guideline
Ideally a Turing Data Story has these properties and follows the 5 safes framework.
[ ] The analysis you produce is openly available and reproducible.
[ ] Any data used are open and have an explicit licence, provenance and attribution.
[ ] Any data used are not personal data (i.e. the data is anonymous or anonymised).
[ ] Any linkage of datasets in your data story does not lead to an increased risk of the personal identification of individuals.
[ ] The Story must be truthful and clear about any limitations of analysis (and potential biases in data).
[ ] The Story will not lead to negative social outcomes, such as (but not limited to) increasing discrimination or injustice.
Story description
Please provide a high level description of the Turing Data Story There are Scottish Parliament elections upcoming on 6th May: https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx . As part of the Bayesian reading group we are planning to develop a model (as a learning exercise) to predict the outcome of the election given the results of polls, but we are yet to nail down the specifics (could include predicting the winner, number of seats for each party etc.). I'll update this issue as our thinking develops.
Which datasets will you be using in this Turing Data Story? There is poll data on Wikipedia for the current and previous elections, see here for example : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election . We will also need data on election results (and it would be preferable if we can get the poll data from source).
Additional context We are currently reading into the Gelman/Economist US election model as a starting point, e.g. see hee: https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model , though there are key differences (e.g. there are more than 2 parties in the Scottish elections and we may not be able to get regional data).
Ethical guideline
Ideally a Turing Data Story has these properties and follows the 5 safes framework.
Current status
Updates