Link to previous module: We have explored relationships between variables. Seen that there are some trends (patterns/regularities), and some uncertainty around those trends.
Modelling is the practice of capturing patterns, mathematically, amid data uncertainty.
Describing the data generating process mathematically.
Talk about different sources of uncertainty that gets in the way of the true data generating process.
The goal of modelling is to be able to predict future observations arising from some data generating phenomena. If we are able to do that well, we can say that we know something about that topic
inference is about learning something from data using models. We can use models to test hypotheses.
Throughout this module there will be a tension between the specific and the general. In this section we should take a moment to introduce the mode of teaching, that we are going to build a model using the data from previous modules, while doing so we will encounter modelling principles that we will take a moment to emphasise.
Tools
Mixture of markdown and visuals from M3 that can carried over into M4 so that the students are familiar with the data
Estimated time for writing
This section will be iterative based on the other sections. The topic is complicated so we will have to redraft frequently to ensure that we are foreshadowing the subsequent content sufficiently to avoid confusion.
Good figures will be the key to explaining these topics intuitively, and they can be carried over to the next sections so it is worth getting it right. Initial draft: 8 hrs
Section 1: What is modelling, and why do it?
Description
Link to previous module: We have explored relationships between variables. Seen that there are some trends (patterns/regularities), and some uncertainty around those trends.
Modelling is the practice of capturing patterns, mathematically, amid data uncertainty.
Describing the data generating process mathematically.
Talk about different sources of uncertainty that gets in the way of the true data generating process.
The goal of modelling is to be able to predict future observations arising from some data generating phenomena. If we are able to do that well, we can say that we know something about that topic
inference is about learning something from data using models. We can use models to test hypotheses.
Throughout this module there will be a tension between the specific and the general. In this section we should take a moment to introduce the mode of teaching, that we are going to build a model using the data from previous modules, while doing so we will encounter modelling principles that we will take a moment to emphasise.
Tools
Estimated time for writing