alarm-redist / fifty-states

Redistricting analysis for all 50 U.S. states
https://alarm-redist.github.io/fifty-states/
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2010 Washington Congressional Districts #132

Closed Aneetej closed 1 year ago

Aneetej commented 2 years ago

2010 Washington Congressional Districts

Redistricting requirements

In Washington, districts must:

  1. be contiguous
  2. have equal populations
  3. be geographically compact
  4. preserve county and municipality boundaries as much as possible
  5. "provide fair and effective representation and ... encourage electoral competition"

Interpretation of requirements

We enforce a maximum population deviation of 0.5%.

Data Sources

Data for Washington comes from the ALARM Project's 2020 Redistricting Data Files.

Pre-processing Notes

Added certain manual connections between counties to ensure contiguity. To view the manual connections, please see 01_prep_WA_cd_2010.R

Simulation Notes

We sample 5,000 districting plans for Washington. Pseudo counties were used in order to limit county and municipality splits to respect Washington State's redistricting requirements.

Validation

WA_cd_2010 updated validation

Adjacency Graph:

WA_adj_2010

`Plan diversity 80% range: 0.53 to 0.80

R-hat values for summary statistics:
   pop_overlap      total_vap       plan_dev      comp_edge    comp_polsby      pop_white      pop_black       pop_hisp       pop_aian      pop_asian       pop_nhpi      pop_other 
      1.003782       1.000149       1.009340       1.007616       1.039110       1.000044       1.012350       1.006062       1.009523       1.008014       1.008132       1.006138 
       pop_two      vap_white      vap_black       vap_hisp       vap_aian      vap_asian       vap_nhpi      vap_other        vap_two pre_16_dem_cli pre_16_rep_tru pre_20_dem_bid 
      1.015106       1.000104       1.011481       1.000343       1.010337       1.005701       1.009907       1.002918       1.016028       1.000857       1.003584       1.001521 
pre_20_rep_tru uss_16_dem_mur uss_16_rep_van uss_18_dem_can uss_18_rep_hut gov_16_dem_ins gov_16_rep_bry gov_20_dem_ins gov_20_rep_cul atg_16_dem_fer atg_16_rep_tru atg_20_dem_fer 
      1.001505       1.003828       1.002977       1.002716       1.003582       1.002738       1.003345       1.001824       1.000898       1.003649       1.001608       1.004339 
atg_20_rep_lar sos_16_dem_pod sos_16_rep_wym sos_20_dem_tar sos_20_rep_wym         adv_16         adv_18         adv_20         arv_16         arv_18         arv_20  county_splits 
      1.001291       1.002720       1.004608       1.004077       1.003775       1.003914       1.002716       1.004122       1.002670       1.003582       1.001500       1.004145 
   muni_splits            ndv            nrv        ndshare          e_dvs         pr_dem          e_dem          pbias           egap 
      1.003262       1.003878       1.002070       1.001511       1.001518       1.003946       1.011205       1.010737       1.008496 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 1 of 2 (7,000 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     6,017 (86.0%)     14.7%        0.79 4,390 ( 99%)     13 
Split 2     5,832 (83.3%)     21.5%        0.84 4,205 ( 95%)      8 
Split 3     5,849 (83.6%)     28.5%        0.83 4,183 ( 95%)      5 
Split 4     5,819 (83.1%)     35.7%        0.79 4,130 ( 93%)      3 
Split 5     5,749 (82.1%)     37.9%        0.80 4,151 ( 94%)      2 
Split 6     5,719 (81.7%)     33.4%        0.80 4,091 ( 92%)      2 
Split 7     5,596 (79.9%)     20.5%        0.83 4,022 ( 91%)      4 
Split 8     5,285 (75.5%)     16.2%        0.88 3,872 ( 88%)      4 
Split 9     5,535 (79.1%)      6.6%        0.84 3,354 ( 76%)      3 
Resample    2,594 (37.1%)       NA%        0.91 3,472 ( 78%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 2 of 2 (7,000 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     6,023 (86.0%)     12.1%        0.79 4,415 (100%)     16 
Split 2     5,814 (83.1%)     19.0%        0.85 4,209 ( 95%)      9 
Split 3     5,776 (82.5%)     28.9%        0.84 4,140 ( 94%)      5 
Split 4     5,780 (82.6%)     34.8%        0.80 4,098 ( 93%)      3 
Split 5     5,738 (82.0%)     32.2%        0.80 4,109 ( 93%)      3 
Split 6     5,832 (83.3%)     33.9%        0.78 4,151 ( 94%)      2 
Split 7     5,727 (81.8%)     30.2%        0.78 4,103 ( 93%)      2 
Split 8     5,702 (81.5%)     24.3%        0.79 3,945 ( 89%)      2 
Split 9     5,586 (79.8%)      8.3%        0.81 3,414 ( 77%)      2 
Resample    2,351 (33.6%)       NA%        0.89 3,480 ( 79%)     NA `

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