alarm-redist / fifty-states

Redistricting analysis for all 50 U.S. states
https://alarm-redist.github.io/fifty-states/
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2010 Utah Congressional Districts #146

Closed mzhao80 closed 1 year ago

mzhao80 commented 1 year ago

Redistricting requirements

In Utah, there are no state law requirements for congressional districts.

Interpretation of requirements

We enforce a maximum population deviation of 0.5%. We limit the number of county/municipality splits.

Data Sources

Data for Utah comes from the ALARM Project's Redistricting Data Files.

Pre-processing Notes

No manual pre-processing decisions were necessary.

Simulation Notes

We sample 5,000 districting plans for Utah across two independent runs of the SMC algorithm. No special techniques were needed to produce the sample.

Validation

validation_20221130_1552

SMC: 5,000 sampled plans of 4 districts on 2,299 units
`adapt_k_thresh`=0.985 • `seq_alpha`=0.5
`est_label_mult`=1 • `pop_temper`=0
ℹ Preparing AR shapefile
Plan diversity 80% range: 0.54 to 0.86
ℹ Preparing AR shapefile
R-hat values for summary statistics:
   pop_overlap      total_vap       plan_dev      comp_edge    comp_polsby      pop_white      pop_black 
     1.0011028      1.0013501      1.0032429      1.0007001      1.0009548      1.0007389      1.0012223 
      pop_hisp       pop_aian      pop_asian       pop_nhpi      pop_other        pop_two      vap_white 
     1.0023677      1.0011348      1.0015591      1.0008147      1.0025380      1.0020332      1.0001014 
     vap_black       vap_hisp       vap_aian      vap_asian       vap_nhpi      vap_other        vap_two 
     1.0034864      1.0023662      1.0011476      1.0013099      1.0014830      1.0030006      1.0021348 
pre_16_rep_tru pre_16_dem_cli pre_20_rep_tru pre_20_dem_bid uss_16_rep_lee uss_16_dem_sno uss_18_rep_rom 
     1.0024333      1.0002818      1.0028094      1.0019078      1.0005141      1.0009794      1.0007408 
uss_18_dem_wil gov_16_rep_her gov_16_dem_wei gov_20_rep_cox gov_20_dem_pet atg_16_rep_rey atg_16_dem_har 
     1.0008207      1.0007144      1.0013581      1.0023349      1.0009473      1.0003990      1.0004774 
atg_20_rep_rey atg_20_dem_sko         adv_16         adv_18         adv_20         arv_16         arv_18 
     1.0025387      1.0019075      1.0006316      1.0008207      1.0021107      1.0020189      1.0007408 
        arv_20  county_splits    muni_splits            ndv            nrv        ndshare          e_dvs 
     1.0019817      1.0000444      1.0005939      1.0010505      1.0019898      1.0001951      1.0002571 
        pr_dem          e_dem          pbias           egap 
     0.9998962      1.0003556      1.0008593      1.0002706 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 1 of 2 (2,500 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     2,306 (92.2%)     10.3%        0.56 1,593 (101%)      7 
Split 2     2,333 (93.3%)     15.8%        0.45 1,536 ( 97%)      4 
Split 3     2,313 (92.5%)      6.6%        0.51 1,389 ( 88%)      3 
Resample    1,653 (66.1%)       NA%        0.51 1,956 (124%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 2 of 2 (2,500 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     2,308 (92.3%)     10.0%        0.56 1,580 (100%)      7 
Split 2     2,341 (93.7%)     15.6%        0.44 1,531 ( 97%)      4 
Split 3     2,327 (93.1%)      5.1%        0.50 1,381 ( 87%)      4 
Resample    1,826 (73.0%)       NA%        0.50 1,948 (123%)     NA 

•  Watch out for low effective samples, very low acceptance rates (less than 1%), large std. devs. of the log
weights (more than 3 or so), and low numbers of unique plans. R-hat values for summary statistics should be
between 1 and 1.05.

Checklist

@CoryMcCartan

CoryMcCartan commented 1 year ago

Looks great!